The Guinea Pig Ranch

[TheWho]

What is sucess at AARC?  As far as I know, it's going back to work or school, and rejoining the family, which every single client does on level 3, while they are still incarcerated.  Beyond that, a minimum of 52% of graduates in the study began  using drugs or alcohol again after leaving AARC.  No data was given in the study with regard to how many of the graduates in the study killed themselves, or were incarcerated subsequent to their captivity in AARC.

I would say success is individually defined.  Some may want to remain clean for 12 months and others may want AARC to help them stay clean for 3 years or more, still others may define it as staying sober for life.  The study merely defines what AARC has achieved and new clients can expect after graduating.  If the results are favorable to a particular person then AARC would be worth the price... others may take a pass.



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[ajax13]

If success is individually defined, there doesn't seem to be much point to AARC claiming an 85% success rate.  However, it has been claimed, falsely, that the 2005 study showed that 85% of the AARC clients from the study were still sober after five years, when in fact most had not been graduated for five years, and 52% had already relapsed.

[TheWho]

If success is individually defined, there doesn't seem to be much point to AARC claiming an 85% success rate.  However, it has been claimed, falsely, that the 2005 study showed that 85% of the AARC clients from the study were still sober after five years, when in fact most had not been graduated for five years, and 52% had already relapsed.

Take another look:
Table 2 Longest period of continuous sobriety of interviewed graduates, maintained by time since graduation
Time since graduation   One month   Six months   Twelve months or more
One year or less (n=29)   0%   6.9%   93.1%
Two to three years (n=42)   2.49%   4.8%   92.9%
Four or more years (n=14)   0%   14.3%   85.7%

It was a snap shot in time.  Each individual was at a different distance away from graduation.  From 8 months to 5.5 years and the study showed that 85% of the people who graduate from AARC are still clean after 4 years.  This is what studies are designed to do, ajax.  Only a percentage of the population were at the 5 year mark.
What I would suggest is to ask someone in the company you work for or someone you know who has a statistics background to explain the table/study to you and the concept of probability.  I have a resource that I us for such occasions.

[ajax13]

52% of the one hundred graduates had relapsed at the time the study was undertaken.  The majority had not yet been graduated for five years.  There is nothing in the study that indicates that 85% are still clean after four years.  15% of the graduates cited in the study did not even take part in the study. 

[TheWho]

52% of the one hundred graduates had relapsed at the time the study was undertaken. 

That is untrue, You just made that up, why?

[TheWho]

The majority had not yet been graduated for five years.

Thats why they used statistics!  That’s the beauty of it.  The time from graduation ranged from 8 months to 5.5 years at the time of the study.  The study showed that 85% of all graduates (not just the ones in this study) will be clean and sober after 4 years.  93% of the graduates will be clean and sober after 1 year.


 

There is nothing in the study that indicates that 85% are still clean after four years.

I showed you the table, just take a look at it.

 

15% of the graduates cited in the study did not even take part in the study.

That is correct.  85 out of the 100 population participated in the study.  Many mail out studies and questionnaires see as low as 25% response rate so it is encouraging to see most were interested  in participating in the AARC study.



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[ajax13]

The study showed what people not included in the study will do?  Incredible.  As always, tremendously insightful help from you, Who.

[TheWho]

The study showed what people not included in the study will do?  Incredible.  As always, tremendously insightful help from you, Who.

Exactly.  The study provides a prediction of what "every person" can expect upon completing the program (not just those in the study).  The study would not be very useful if the results only applied those in the study.

A portion of those in the study show that 85% of the graduates will be clean and sober after 4 years
Another portion of the study show that 93% of the graduates will be clean and sober after 12 months  etc.



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[ajax13]

You keep dropping the qualifier "still" from your claims about what is indicated in the study.  52%  of former inmates in the study were already relapsed, most not yet out of AARC 5 years.  A study of a sample group does not show what every person can expect, but rather shows tendencies within the study group.  Depending on the validity of the tests, and the size of the group tested, a margin of error can indicate a rate at which the tendencies shown in the study can be expected to occur in the total population.

[TheWho]

You keep dropping the qualifier "still" from your claims about what is indicated in the study.  52%  of former inmates in the study were already relapsed, most not yet out of AARC 5 years.  A study of a sample group does not show what every person can expect, but rather shows tendencies within the study group.  Depending on the validity of the tests, and the size of the group tested, a margin of error can indicate a rate at which the tendencies shown in the study can be expected to occur in the total population.

Show us your table so we can all review it.  No reason to get all upset about it.  The facts are the facts.  Lets get them on the table and review the study.  Its public knowledge, its not like anyone is hiding anything except maybe you.  Toss it up and lets take a look.

[ajax13]

I might suggest that you read the study yourself, rather than relying on me or anyone else to provide you the inforamtion contained in the study.  You could then draw your own conclusions.  How do you know what anyone has to hide?  Is that more of that AARColyte ESP I keep seeing? 

[TheWho]

I might suggest that you read the study yourself, rather than relying on me or anyone else to provide you the inforamtion contained in the study.  You could then draw your own conclusions.  How do you know what anyone has to hide?  Is that more of that AARColyte ESP I keep seeing? 

I did read it and here is what it said:
Take another look:
Table 2 Longest period of continuous sobriety of interviewed graduates, maintained by time since graduation
Time since graduation   One month   Six months   Twelve months or more
One year or less (n=29)   0%   6.9%   93.1%
Two to three years (n=42)   2.49%   4.8%   92.9%
Four or more years (n=14)   0%   14.3%   85.7%

Shows that 85% are sober after 4 years and
93% are sober after 12 months of graduation.

Where was your section again?


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[ajax13]

Right.  52% relapsed since leaving AARC, most out for an average of just over 2 years.  Exactly what I said.

[TheWho]

Right.  52% relapsed since leaving AARC, most out for an average of just over 2 years.  Exactly what I said.

so you dont have any source besides yourself?  Is there a table you can reference for us.



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[ajax13]

If you are curious about what is contained in the study, I would wholeheartedly encourage you to read the study.  I would encourage anyone else who feels that the study itself, it's methodology, or the data contained therein are relevant to the discussions in this forum, to read the study and draw their own conclusions.