Fornits
General Interest => Tacitus' Realm => Topic started by: Oscar on April 24, 2010, 12:48:27 AM
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Florida to Punish Kids for Crimes They Haven't Committed Yet (http://http://criminaljustice.change.org/blog/view/florida_to_punish_kids_for_crimes_they_havent_committed_yet), criminaljustice.change.org, April 21, 2010
In Denmark we have preventive arrests. They are used every weekend against soccerfans who in general come from certain social groups.
People are arrested and detained preventive for up to 12 hours before they are released without charges (extended from 6 hours as part of the state of emergency laws in relationship with COP15 and not cancelled once the COP15 was over).
The police and our department of justice justify this method based on previous behavior of this social group before preventive arrests were possible. People are so to say born into being a risk for the society in the eyes of the police. Needless to say that this approach are met with a lot of criticism.
I don't know how IBM's software works. What I can read is that they want to detain people in programs based on possible events in the future.
It seems to be based on the same idea as preventive arrest is, but where people are released within 12 hours in Denmark, the consequences are so much harder on juveniles in Florida.
What do you say?
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change.org
C R I M I N A L · J U S T I C E
Florida to Punish Kids for Crimes They Haven't Committed Yet (http://http://criminaljustice.change.org/blog/view/florida_to_punish_kids_for_crimes_they_havent_committed_yet)
by Matt Kelley | April 21, 2010 | 09:22 AM (PT)
Topics: Juvenile Justice, Sentencing
(http://http://change-production.s3.amazonaws.com/photos/wordpress_copies/criminaljustice/2010/04/br-250x262.jpg)
I knew it was easy to get locked up in Florida. Apparently, you can get punished in the state before committing a crime, too.
An extremely troubling new partnership (http://http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Florida-Department-of-bw-1587995596.html?x=0&.v=1) between the Florida Department of Corrections and IBM wants to use software to predict which juveniles will commit crimes in the future, so "the best course of treatment" can be chosen. Hey, why wait for juveniles to commit crimes, if we can start their "rehabilitation" now?
The Florida DOC says that by using predictive analytics software, it can "analyze key predictors such as past offense history, home life environment, gang affiliation and peer associations to better understand and predict which youths have a higher likelihood to reoffend."
What about talking to the kids to determine the best course of action? People are unpredictable and complex; they aren't data points. Juveniles should be taught that the world is open to them, and that they are the agents of their own destiny — not that they fit into the bottom half of a spreadsheet, and therefore need extra mandatory counseling or placement in a group home.
My biggest problem with this announcement is that it takes a good principle and completely warps it. Evidence-based programming is good. Using data to determine what works and what doesn't is smart. But we've crossed the line when IBM's vice president for analytics says the software will help authorities "take the appropriate action in real time to combat crime and protect citizens." What are they thinking?
I first heard about this partnership from Jesus Diaz at Gizmodo (http://http://gizmodo.com/5517231/crime-prediction-software-is-here-and-its-a-very-bad-idea), who had the same reaction: "I don't know about how reliable your system is, IBM, but have you ever heard of the 5th, the 6th, and the 14th Amendments to the United States Constitution? What about article 11 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? No? Let's make this easy then: Didn't you watch that scientology nutcase in Minority Report (http://http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0181689/)?"
Florida's Department of Corrections should use any data collected to guide programming decisions on a macro level, rather than using an individual's past mistakes to condemn them to a less-promising future. As it stands, Florida's latest move is badly misguided. But with just a few tweaks, this new partnership could get back on track.
Photo Credit: jsmjr
Matt Kelley is the Online Communications Manager at the Innocence Project and a graduate of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University.
© 2010, Change.org
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:bump:
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I dont see where this software violates any human rights. The whole idea is to help these kids so that they dont end up in adult facilities when they get older. I havent been able to identify any down side to this. It is very proactive in my opinion.
I just hope they collect data so that they can measure how effective the software use is.
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I dont see where this software violates any human rights. The whole idea is to help these kids so that they dont end up in adult facilities when they get older. I havent been able to identify any down side to this. It is very proactive in my opinion.
I just hope they collect data so that they can measure how effective the software use is.
IBM has a fine history of involvement in keeping track of the whereabouts, personal histories, mortality rates and other pertinent incidentals of targeted populations.
(http://http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/ne/nm/2001/black/ibm1.jpg)
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I dont see where this software violates any human rights. The whole idea is to help these kids so that they dont end up in adult facilities when they get older. I havent been able to identify any down side to this. It is very proactive in my opinion.
I just hope they collect data so that they can measure how effective the software use is.
IBM has a fine history of involvement in keeping track of the whereabouts, personal histories, mortality rates and other pertinent incidentals of targeted populations.
(http://http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/ne/nm/2001/black/ibm1.jpg)
Wow, Ursus, you are bit rigid there. Maybe? Lol That image you posted was 1937. Hitler was looked up to by most of the world and was Time Magazines’ “Man of the Year” in 1939. Do you also feel Time Magazine promotes genocide? Should we avoid reading it?
Are you serious? Do you really discredit a software program designed today because of a picture of three men depicting “an assumed conversation” taken over 70 years ago? I thought you were smarter than that.
Here is the prime minister of England with Adolf Hitler. Were they conspiring about killing all the jews? Should Jewish people not buy products from England?
(http://http://www.iamthewitness.com/img/Neville.Chamberlain.and.Adolf.Hitler.jpg)
Very weak argument Ursus, you didn’t even have to read the article to draw that conclusion. Your mind is closing more and more with each passing day.
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Come on Whooter, that was relevant and funny and you know it. So you can’t see the problem with a state buying into an IBM version of an E-meter?
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Come on Whooter, that was relevant and funny and you know it. So you can’t see the problem with a state buying into an IBM version of an E-meter?
I agree it was funny. But the scary part is I think Ursus was serious when he tried to discredit the software by saying the company that developed it had a meeting with Hitler 70 years ago. Ursus has used this same mentality saying that programs were rooted from some brainwashing process used in the 1940’s so therefore they must brainwash today. If he can make himself believe that then he can easily believe the Hitler connection. Do you see what I mean?
Guest, it seems you have not read the article either. There is no E-meter. It is an analytical tool used to predict risk factors associated with kids who are in juvy detention and how they can best be helped based on their past and present environment. No one is going to be persecuted for crimes they haven’t committed yet.
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I dont see where this software violates any human rights. The whole idea is to help these kids so that they dont end up in adult facilities when they get older. I havent been able to identify any down side to this. It is very proactive in my opinion.
I just hope they collect data so that they can measure how effective the software use is.
IBM has a fine history of involvement in keeping track of the whereabouts, personal histories, mortality rates and other pertinent incidentals of targeted populations.
(http://http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/ne/nm/2001/black/ibm1.jpg)
Wow, Ursus, you are bit rigid there. Maybe? Lol That image you posted was 1937. Hitler was looked up to by most of the world and was Time Magazines’ “Man of the Year” in 1939. Do you also feel Time Magazine promotes genocide? Should we avoid reading it?
Are you serious? Do you really discredit a software program designed today because of a picture of three men depicting “an assumed conversation” taken over 70 years ago? I thought you were smarter than that.
Here is the prime minister of England with Adolf Hitler. Were they conspiring about killing all the jews? Should Jewish people not buy products from England?
(http://http://www.iamthewitness.com/img/Neville.Chamberlain.and.Adolf.Hitler.jpg)
Very weak argument Ursus, you didn’t even have to read the article to draw that conclusion. Your mind is closing more and more with each passing day.
Whoa there horsie and Lol x 10! You're being a mite bit defensive there, eh? All I did was make an observation, made umpteen times before by countless others, and provide an historical photo. No argument made. I didn't even extrapolate. No need... You were the one to do that for me! :D
Why... if I didn't know better, and to be sure, I don't, I'd venture that you have substantial ideological and financial interests vested in denying IBM's involvement in the machinery of World War II. Perhaps, given IBM's focus in recent history, even some involvement in the software industry?
I didn't even mention IBM's work in customizing the punch cards to the Nazis' specifications.
Nor did I mention their work for the other side. Mmm. Much fodder for speculation here.
But I can see that this conversation is disturbing you to no end! You've even resorted to personal insults, which you usually reserve for others who are a tad... more... blunt.
Tut tut. Methinks ya played your cards too soon on this one... :D
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Come on Whooter, that was relevant and funny and you know it. So you can’t see the problem with a state buying into an IBM version of an E-meter?
I agree it was funny. But the scary part is I think Ursus was serious when he tried to discredit the software by saying the company that developed it had a meeting with Hitler 70 years ago. Ursus has used this same mentality saying that programs were rooted from some brainwashing process used in the 1940’s so therefore they must brainwash today. If he can make himself believe that then he can easily believe the Hitler connection. Do you see what I mean?
Guest, it seems you have not read the article either. There is no E-meter. It is an analytical tool used to predict risk factors associated with kids who are in juvy detention and how they can best be helped based on their past and present environment. No one is going to be persecuted for crimes they haven’t committed yet.
Nice try, Whooter, but... Did anyone ever tell you that when you try too hard, you give yourself away? This latest piece is just icing on the cake you presented earlier. I think ya need another cuppa coffee. I'd say this is a classic case of exaggeration in an attempt to attack credibility.
:blabla:
It's called "group management," and Whooter buys into it big time. Gotta keep track of and control all of them hamsters!
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Whoa there horsie and Lol x 10! You're being a mite bit defensive there, eh? All I did was make an observation, made umpteen times before by countless others, and provide an historical photo. No argument made. I didn't even extrapolate. No need... You were the one to do that for me! :D
Why... if I didn't know better, and to be sure, I don't, I'd venture that you have substantial ideological and financial interests vested in denying IBM's involvement in the machinery of World War II. Perhaps, given IBM's focus in recent history, even some involvement in the software industry?
I didn't even mention IBM's work in customizing the punch cards to the Nazis' specifications.
Nor did I mention their work for the other side. Mmm. Much fodder for speculation here.
But I can see that this conversation is disturbing you to no end! You've even resorted to personal insults, which you usually reserve for others who are a tad... more... blunt.
Tut tut. Methinks ya played your cards too soon on this one... :D
Oh, No!!! Now I have a financial interest in IBM and their involvement in World War II and their underhanded presence in the software industry. How can I be so evil..lol. We should all check our 401k’s and dissolve our IBM interests. Now I am really a programmie on 2 different levels… (pun intended).
All kidding aside, Ursus, I appreciate your clarifying and stepping back a bit. No personal attacks were intended, but you do tend to reach way back in history sometimes to try to justify your feelings (and position) on events occurring today without parallel. Maybe because there is a lack of substantive evidence residing in the present for you to reference, but I don’t know. I really did think you were trying to somehow discredit the IBM software with the 1937 Nazi photos and so I felt it was a bit Bazaar, even for you. So I had a need to respond the way I did, although it was a knee jerk reaction I confess.
If I give myself away, as you call it, then that is a good thing. I think that many if not most people disagree with me here on fornits but they also can see that I am consistent and open with my opinions and try to explain the reason for my feelings on each subject.
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Come on Whooter, that was relevant and funny and you know it. So you can’t see the problem with a state buying into an IBM version of an E-meter?
Guest, it seems you have not read the article either. There is no E-meter. It is an analytical tool used to predict risk factors associated with kids who are in juvy detention and how they can best be helped based on their past and present environment. No one is going to be persecuted for crimes they haven’t committed yet.
Incidentally, although I really can't speak for quest, I do believe s/he was making reference to the "Pre-Crime" unit from the film Minority Report, referred to in the blog linked to in the OP (and copied out in the second post), and which stars Tom Cruise, celebrity apologist for E-meters everywhere:
"I don't know about how reliable your system is, IBM, but have you ever heard of the 5th, the 6th, and the 14th Amendments to the United States Constitution? What about article 11 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? No? Let's make this easy then: Didn't you watch that scientology nutcase in Minority Report (http://http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0181689/)?"
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All kidding aside, Ursus, I appreciate your clarifying and stepping back a bit. No personal attacks were intended, but you do tend to reach way back in history sometimes to try to justify your feelings (and position) on events occurring today without parallel.
Puhleeeezz. No "reach" needed, these events are integrally connected, as you, of all folk, know all too well! :D
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Incidentally, although I really can't speak for quest, I do believe s/he was making reference to the "Pre-Crime" unit from the film Minority Report, referred to in the blog linked to in the OP (and copied out in the second post), and which stars Tom Cruise, celebrity apologist for E-meters everywhere:
I agree, I cannot speak for him/her either. I think if Tom Cruise had a family member who worked for IBM then people would be trying to make a connection to some E-Meter that they were working on and saying that was the basis for the movie.
Its human nature to wonder but it is nutty to think that Hollywood really gives a crap about the actors affiliations or religions. They just want to make a huge impact and make a ton of money. They sit back and laugh when people try to make up conspiracy theories out of it. I remember when people said if you play the Beatles song “I am the Walrus” backwards it says “Paul is dead”. This was fun and all but there were always people willing to take it to a new level and start to believe it and planning funerals and such.
I am surprised that you buy into it, Ursus.
If you bothered to read the “original” article you would find out that it was just data collection which would provide information to help kids who were already arrested. Not to arrest kids before they committed a crime.
Think of it as putting more officers in high crime neighborhoods based on statistical data. This doesn’t violate anyone’s rights and is proactive. It’s a good use of data
I think the problem is that people read someone else’s spin on an article and believe it 100%, get scared because they don’t understand and then react in ignorance and think that there is a conspiracy or that the last movie they saw reminds them of the present situation. Just slow down and read the original media release and then decide for yourself. Don’t be led by others.
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I am surprised that you buy into it, Ursus.
Geeezz. You're really on a roll today, eh? Buy into what, Whooter?
This issue of tracking and profiling software must really stick in your craw somehow. Of course, it's not like you or yours need worry about such a thing, eh? After all, that's where the private-pay sector comes in, the parent-choice industry you're so fond of promoting.
Oh, and I did read the original press release shortly after the OP was posted. While I agree that the software is not overtly intended to "arrest kids before they commit a crime," I do have concerns that that possibility may very well happen ... considering human nature and the feasibility of being judged guilty by association alone.
...Florida Department of Juvenile Justice will analyze key predictors such as past offense history, home life environment, gang affiliation and peer associations to better understand and predict which youths have a higher likelihood to reoffend.[/list]
I can practically guarantee ya that growing up on the wrong side of the tracks is one of the predictors in that database; more tactfully phrased, of course.
Incidentally, since when has profiling target populations ever even made a significant dent in crime anyway?
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Here's IBM's press release on this news, in case anyone hasn't read it yet:
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Florida Department of Juvenile Justice to Reduce Rate of Re-offenders with IBM Predictive Analytics (http://http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Florida-Department-of-bw-1587995596.html?x=0&.v=1)
Press Release Source: SPSS On Wednesday April 14, 2010, 9:00 am EDT
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.
More than 85,000 youth enter the juvenile justice system in Florida each year for varying degrees of offenses – from drug abuse to robbery or property crimes. As each youth enters the system for a different reason and with varying backgrounds, the best program for positive rehabilitation is very specific – what may work for one juvenile may not work for another.
Mark Greenwald, chief of research and planning at the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, said, “The State of Florida believes that if youth are rehabilitated with effective prevention, intervention and treatment services early in life, juveniles will not enter the adult corrections system. Our goal is to ensure juveniles do not return to the system. IBM SPSS predictive analytics will allow our organization to refine our current practice and better intervene in juvenile lives earlier to help them become — and stay — law abiding citizens.”
The organization selected IBM predictive analytics to improve its existing screening and placement process. With the new analytics system in place, Florida Department of Juvenile Justice will analyze key predictors such as past offense history, home life environment, gang affiliation and peer associations to better understand and predict which youths have a higher likelihood to reoffend.
With that information, the organization can more effectively place specific segments of juveniles into the best programs for rehabilitation. For example, juveniles identified as having a higher likelihood for re-offense can be placed in a more focused program, such as one that addresses issues on substance abuse or mental health, if appropriate to the need. Additionally, the organization will direct those youth with a lower chance of re-offense to a less restrictive program, again providing services better tailored to meet their rehabilitative needs.
Prior to predictive analytics, the organization used Excel for basic analysis on projections for the number of delinquency cases they would take in, which had limited functionality. They selected IBM SPSS predictive analytics due to the ease of use and the advanced analytic capabilities.
The organization will now utilize the new predictive analytics system as a component in many of the performance measurement analyses conducted and distributed to agency staff throughout the year. These reports assess the future of delinquency cases to evaluate what juvenile crime trends may look like in the immediate future. This information will help the organization to better plan and project staffing and other resource needs.
IBM recently also announced that the Ministry of Justice in the United Kingdom uses predictive analytics to assess the likelihood of prisoners reoffending upon their release to help improve public safety. With predictive technology from IBM, the Ministry of Justice is analyzing hidden trends and patterns within the data. IBM SPSS predictive analytics has helped identify whether offenders with specific problems such as drug and alcohol misuse are more likely to reoffend than other prisoners.
Deepak Advani, vice president of predictive analytics at IBM, said, “Predictive analytics gives government organizations worldwide a highly-sophisticated and intelligent source to create safer communities by identifying, predicting, responding to and preventing criminal activities. It gives the criminal justice system the ability to draw upon the wealth of data available to detect patterns, make reliable projections and then take the appropriate action in real time to combat crime and protect citizens.”
IBM has invested more than $12 billion to build an analytics portfolio which includes organic innovation and acquisitions. In addition, IBM has assembled 4,000 analytics consultants with industry expertise, and opened a network of seven analytics centers of excellence. Today, IBM is working with more than 250,000 clients worldwide on predictive analytics, including 22 of the top 24 global commercial banks, 18 of the world's top 22 telecommunication carriers and 11 of the top 12 U.S. specialty retailers.
To learn more about SPSS, an IBM Company, please visit: http://www.spss.com (http://www.spss.com)
To learn more about IBM business analytics please visit: http://www.ibm.com/gbs/bao (http://www.ibm.com/gbs/bao)
Contact:
Christina Preiss, SPSS, an IBM Company
[email protected]
(312) 651-3437
Copyright © 2010 Yahoo! All rights reserved.
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Geeezz. You're really on a roll today, eh? Buy into what, Whooter?
This issue of tracking and profiling software must really stick in your craw somehow.
Not at all. Its a discussion. I was curious by why you toss a photo from 1937 to discredit a software package developed today to avoid discussing it.
Oh, and I did read the original press release shortly after the OP was posted. While I agree that the software is not overtly intended to "arrest kids before they commit a crime," I do have concerns that that possibility may very well happen ... considering human nature and the feasibility of being judged guilty by association alone.
...Florida Department of Juvenile Justice will analyze key predictors such as past offense history, home life environment, gang affiliation and peer associations to better understand and predict which youths have a higher likelihood to reoffend.
I can practically guarantee ya that growing up on the wrong side of the tracks is one of the predictors in that database; more tactfully phrased, of course.
Sure it could be used for the wrong reason the same as nuclear energy or the enrichment of uranium can be. But presently using predictors of where the child lives and who he hangs out with may prove valuable in helping them avoid re entering the prison system.
If a child is living in a high crime area (wrong side of the tracks) then it may benefit him to be educated specifically in this area. They could target these kids and get them the help they need and then measure their success rates. Kids in gangs would receive different education than say kids living in abusive households. If a young girls’ mother is a prostitute or lives in an area which is more densely populated with prostitution (or fits the profile) then it may benefit her to be educated in this area so that she may have a better chance to avoid this path.
Incidentally, since when has profiling target populations ever even made a significant dent in crime anyway?
I don’t really know. As a society we usually spend all our time and resources reacting to problems that have already occurred. We hire police to chase people around and put them in jail after the fact. I think it is a good idea to try to reduce the crime rate by avoiding the crime to begin with. That way we need less police, people are safer and the kids are not committing crimes and therefore are more productive and happier in society. Its all upside.
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Why doesn't the state of Florida just lock up every kid in the state? You never know when they might start hanging out with the wrong crowd.
Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.
The software to more appropriately curb juvenile crime might be created to focus on local societies as a whole, including all local government, parents and juvenile offendors etc. for the purposes of improving living conditions for all.
But to lock up anyone against their will without a crime having been committed undermines basic human liberties. I read that this was once the reason Americans fought and died in wars. We have a statue.
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Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.
Would "Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature" apply to children sent to programs?
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Why doesn't the state of Florida just lock up every kid in the state? You never know when they might start hanging out with the wrong crowd.
Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.
The software to more appropriately curb juvenile crime might be created to focus on local societies as a whole, including all local government, parents and juvenile offendors etc. for the purposes of improving living conditions for all.
But to lock up anyone against their will without a crime having been committed undermines basic human liberties. I read that this was once the reason Americans fought and died in wars. We have a statue.
wdtony, its just the opposite of what you are thinking, the software will be used to help kids who are already in jail or juvy. Kids who are in jail for various offenses will receive services based on the childs risks after they are released. For example if a child is going to be released into a family which will expose her to prostitution then this child will receive education which which will help her (in her specific area of risk) so that she heads down a better path and will not end up back in jail as an adult.
This is a move away from the cookie cutter approach of having all offenders attend AA or Na meetings (or other training) whether they are at-risk in those areas or not and focus more on their specific needs.
The whole idea is to "Not" lock up the kids and to reduce the number of kids becoming adult offenders.
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Why doesn't the state of Florida just lock up every kid in the state? You never know when they might start hanging out with the wrong crowd.
Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.
The software to more appropriately curb juvenile crime might be created to focus on local societies as a whole, including all local government, parents and juvenile offendors etc. for the purposes of improving living conditions for all.
But to lock up anyone against their will without a crime having been committed undermines basic human liberties. I read that this was once the reason Americans fought and died in wars. We have a statue.
wdtony, its just the opposite of what you are thinking, the software will be used to help kids who are already in jail or juvy. Kids who are in jail for various offenses will receive services based on the childs risks after they are released. For example if a child is going to be released into a family which will expose her to prostitution then this child will receive education which which will help her (in her specific area of risk) so that she heads down a better path and will not end up back in jail as an adult.
This is a move away from the cookie cutter approach of having all offenders attend AA or Na meetings (or other training) whether they are at-risk in those areas or not and focus more on their specific needs.
The whole idea is to "Not" lock up the kids and to reduce the number of kids becoming adult offenders.
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CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.
The way I was reading it ( since these articles are so nonspecific ) it seemed to me that kids will be placed in programs after they have served their time in juvy. To me this seems like being locked up twice depending upon the definition of the word program. I get the impression that eventually kids will be "placed" before they offend which is a slippery slope. I stand by my interpretation of these articles based on my own life experience.
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CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.
The way I was reading it ( since these articles are so nonspecific ) it seemed to me that kids will be placed in programs after they have served their time in juvy. To me this seems like being locked up twice depending upon the definition of the word program. I get the impression that eventually kids will be "placed" before they offend which is a slippery slope. I stand by my interpretation of these articles based on my own life experience.
I can see how many would read it this way. But you need to keep in mind that one of the main goals is to reduce cost. So the state isn’t going to take kids coming out of juvy and then pay to place them in another program. The software will be used to better define individualized rehabilitation of kids entering the juvenile justice system and hopefully reduce their stay there, make it more productive and have an effect which would prevent them from coming back.
I am sensitive to when regulars here on fornits see the word program they think of brainwashing or mind control. But outside of fornits a “program” can be very benign and means a definition of rehabilitation. The program could be that the child sees a therapist everyday or an educator on the dangers of prostitution etc.
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I dont see where this software violates any human rights. The whole idea is to help these kids so that they dont end up in adult facilities when they get older. I havent been able to identify any down side to this. It is very proactive in my opinion.
I just hope they collect data so that they can measure how effective the software use is.
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You need to watch minority report. What IBM is doing is basically justifying arresting people for future-crime, and we don't even know if it works. Even if it did, however, it would still be unethical to use. Perhaps it does result in "greater good" (which you're all about), but it's at the cost of essential personal liberty. How would you like it if you were just misunderstood and because of some wild data about your life you were deprived of liberty and forced into "treatment" for something that may not be a disease, just parts of the way you are. Not everybody fits into a mold. To profile like this is prejudice, regardless of how "fair" the programming is.
I can practically guarantee ya that growing up on the wrong side of the tracks is one of the predictors in that database
I can believe that. After all, raw statistics can justify such a thing. Lower income (minorities) means a greater propensity to crime. Prejudice is rational, as is profiling. Ursus is right. Nazis rationalized a lot, like you do, Whooter. And so many in this country are on a similiar slippery slope.
IBM recently also announced that the Ministry of Justice in the United Kingdom uses predictive analytics to assess the likelihood of prisoners reoffending upon their release to help improve public safety. With predictive technology from IBM, the Ministry of Justice is analyzing hidden trends and patterns within the data."
Wow. Creepy. Do you really want to live in a world where your sentence could be defined by the results of unknown data processed by a computer using an unknown method? What ever happened to a jury of peers.
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CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.
The way I was reading it ( since these articles are so nonspecific ) it seemed to me that kids will be placed in programs after they have served their time in juvy. To me this seems like being locked up twice depending upon the definition of the word program. I get the impression that eventually kids will be "placed" before they offend which is a slippery slope. I stand by my interpretation of these articles based on my own life experience.
I can see how many would read it this way.
Me too; cause that's the way it's written.
But you need to keep in mind that one of the main goals is to reduce cost.
I have no such need or desire. You seem to want everybody to think this way. But that does not translate to a need on my part.
So the state isn’t going to take kids coming out of juvy and then pay to place them in another program. The software will be used to better define individualized rehabilitation of kids entering the juvenile justice system and hopefully reduce their stay there, make it more productive and have an effect which would prevent them from coming back.
Sure, that would save personal involvement and the hard work of thinking on the part of the people making these decisions. Ask Martin Lee Anderson's surviving family how much they trust the Florida DJJ to make such decisions. See what the White House Boys (http://http://www.google.com/search?q=Dozier+School&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=com.ubuntu:en-US:unofficial&client=firefox-a) think of this innovative idea.
I am sensitive to when regulars here on fornits see the word program they think of brainwashing or mind control. But outside of fornits a “program” can be very benign and means a definition of rehabilitation. The program could be that the child sees a therapist everyday or an educator on the dangers of prostitution etc.
What color is the sky in your world? Florida CYS and DJJ are notorious throughout the world for abuse and negligence. The way I see it, having grown up in Florida, this is just one more way for the people making these decisions to dodge responsibility. "Hey, don't blame me, the computer clearly indicated that this was the right thing to do."
You know how Florida cops determine "Gang affiliation"? If they see a kid talking, however, casually with a kid who they believe is involved in a gang, that kid then gets tagged. From that point, anyone who that newly tagged kid hangs out with gets similarly tagged as "suspected gang affiliate". This brings in funding and also provides a measure of "CYA" to any officer who may have dealings with that kid at any time in the future.
This is a terrible idea, so I'm not too surprised to see you support it.
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Slashdot has interesting commentary on the subject:
http://yro.slashdot.org/story/10/04/16/ ... ?art_pos=7 (http://yro.slashdot.org/story/10/04/16/1224234/Innocent-Until-Predicted-Guilty?art_pos=7)
Do you think that there is any realistic chance that having a Respected Criminologist(who knows how to wear a suit that makes him look like a respected authority figure; but not a pointy-headed academic) tell the jury that the Totally Trustworthy and Extremely Sophisticated Computer System has determined that the punk-ass kid currently in the dock before you is an incipient menace won't be a completely standard part of prosecution down there within a few years?
Despite the combined efforts of virtually every major consumer software vendor, Joe Public still somehow trusts computers and thinks of them as authoritative. DAs and prosecutors will absolutely eat that shit up, as will jurors.
Just think - if England would have had a technology similar to this in the 18th century, it would have "discovered" all the rebellious founding fathers, and America never would have had a chance to earn it's freedom. The potential for heinous abuse by the government of this system far outweighs any benefit it may offer. Shame on you IBM. Again.
The best part is, if the software doesn't currently consider you a "threat" we can always tweak it to push you over the threshold! Remember that come next election, or next time you purchase something we don't think you should, or even the next time you pass us and don't give us a compliment!
New corporate slogan: "IBM an Integrated Best of Breed Final Solutions Provider"?
"Mrs. King, we have determined that your son Martin is statistically likely to grow up to be a troublemaker. We advise you begin Prozac treatments to curb these tendencies and allow him to live a normal life. Now please move to be back of the bus."
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I take from the responses that many here have never read the original article. I believe Ursus posted it a few posts back. The kids that are going to get the “Profiled” help have already committed a crime. The state of Florida isn’t taking kids off the street and putting them in programs because of where they live. This profiling is designed to try to help target what may help the kids. Why put a child through a mandatory drug rehab program if he isn’t really addicted to drugs? Why not address some of his family issues which may have lead him to Juvy? Why should we be satisfied with the same abusive system that Florida has, Why not improve it and tailor Rehabilitation for each child? It seems to be a knee jerk reaction for many here to close your ears anytime there is talk about helping kids and try to twist it into brainwashing abusing kids somehow. As a society we cant just sit back and tolerate kids breaking the law and then letting them run free again without addressing the root cause or providing them help. Instead of tossing these kids in juvy hall why not target what is driving them to commit crimes and getting them some help?
Change isn’t a bad thing.., I am sure there will be many organizations who will be watching this closely to see how successful this is and which path it takes.
I did see Minority Report and it was a great film, but I think you confused the first posted article where the writer insinuated that these kids were going to be arrested prior to committing a crime and this isnt the case. The state of Georgia went thru similar struggles with profiling when the majority of the police force were patrolling high crime areas but the majority of the people (tax payers)paying their salaries were getting less protection because they lived in lower crime areas. The police force argued that statistically there was a higher risk of crime in those areas... so they were profiling. Many didnt think it was legal.
If a kid was arrested for robbing a store and had some drugs on him why automatically toss him in juvy and send him to NA meetings. Most kids who use drugs at a young age are not addicted. Why not help this kid figure out why he is stuck in the downturn?
Sorry, I jumped around alot.
...
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I take from the responses that many here have never read the original article. I believe Ursus posted it a few posts back. The kids that are going to get the “Profiled” help have already committed a crime.
Oh I understand that. But it's still judging whether they will commit another crime in the future. With this system the punishment doesn't fit the crime, it fits some steriotype of a person cooked up by a computer based on god knows who's criteria.
As a society we cant just sit back and tolerate kids breaking the law and then letting them run free again without addressing the root cause or providing them help.
Of course we can't let criminals who have harmed others go. They should be judged on each crime individually, not for what they will probably do in the future.
If a kid was arrested for robbing a store and had some drugs on him why automatically toss him in juvy and send him to NA meetings.
Because it's religious indoctrination which violates the establishment clause and there is no evidence at all that NA works. I'l all for jail if a crime (that hurts others) has been committed but treatment should always be voluntary, and there should be an alternative to NA in prisons.
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This reminds me of the Violence Initiative. http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQZdUmxG1Es
They had a "Weed and Seed" program for intercity kids.
They weeded them all into Juvi and oops forgot to seed...........
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Oh I understand that. But it's still judging whether they will commit another crime in the future. With this system the punishment doesn't fit the crime, it fits some steriotype of a person cooked up by a computer based on god knows who's criteria.
If a kid lives on a boat it may be a good idea to get him swimming lessons. Maybe even force him to if he refuses. Doesn’t need to be voluntary. The kid living in the dessert may want to learn a little more about snakes. There is nothing wrong with this. Looking at a childs environment and determining what may help him survive and live a good life isn’t wrong, psy. The same as determining the type of help a child offender needs by his/her environment isn’t bad either.
Because it's religious indoctrination which violates the establishment clause and there is no evidence at all that NA works. I'l all for jail if a crime (that hurts others) has been committed but treatment should always be voluntary, and there should be an alternative to NA prisons.
Whether NA works or not, my point is why put a child thru it if he isn’t even addicted to drugs or even exposed to it at home. Maybe the child is being abused by his father and doesn’t have a drug problem and so needs help in another area. Treatment will never be voluntary until the child comes of age and can decide for themselves. The authorities (parents, legal guardian etc.) need to define this for the kids.
...
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This reminds me of the Violence Initiative. http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQZdUmxG1Es
They had a "Weed and Seed" program for intercity kids.
They weeded them all into Juvi and oops forgot to seed...........
Great talk by Peter Breggin! I watched the whole thing through. The "Weed and Seed" program is first mentioned in the third clip, I believe, though the other clips provided needed context:
- Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 1 (http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQZdUmxG1Es)
- Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 2 (http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItWhnyh1xpk)
- Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 3 (http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhYDrYnQZ00)
- Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 4 (http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSNfFf6Lt58)
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Lord have mercy...
Innocent til proven guilty...
/thread
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Exactly. I think that is where many are missing the point here,Frod. These kids have enough problems without being forced into programs they don’t need. Why put a kid into a drug rehab program if he doesn’t need it? Or isn’t involved in drugs? When these kids commit crimes and end up in juvy they should be helped in the specific area that they need help in, not some cookie cutter program which covers a variety of topics.
This will save the state money and at the same time target each childs specific needs. I wouldn’t want my kids being forced to learn about the dangers of gins in the home or drug re-education if it didn’t apply.
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Whooter, you're arguing against the very thing you seem to think you support; screening kids for treatment for crimes they haven't committed yet.
Amazing!
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Well the kids that are going to be treated have “already committed” a crime. No one is going to be taken off the street and put into rehab for crimes they have not committed. The screening process will help authorities to better help these kids while they are incarcerated. They are not going to have the kids spend their time in juvy and then add extra cost to send them to a program. They are going to integrate the specific programs into their time served.
Have any of you given thought that if a simple article like this (which is clearly spelled out) is so badly misinterpreted and twisted to the point that many here believe it to be like the movie “minority report”. Then how are we to interpret your own experiences as survivors and your time inside a program as you present them for us? Should we expect that you would knowingly misinterpret this program that is going into place in Florida but are telling the truth about your own experiences?
Just something to think about from a readers standpoint.
...
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Uhmmm....
--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.
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Uhmmm....
--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.
Keep reading…..
More than 85,000 youth enter the juvenile justice system in Florida each year for varying degrees of offenses – from drug abuse to robbery or property crimes. As each youth enters the system for a different reason and with varying backgrounds, the best program for positive rehabilitation is very specific – what may work for one juvenile may not work for another.
Antigen, The kids will be profiled as they enter the system. An appropriate rehabilitation program will be identified at that point. These kids have already committed a crime. There is no intent on driving around and plucking kids off the streets and putting them in programs.
...
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I see what you're arguing, Whooter... That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements. Maybe, Maybe not. But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data). England is using it on adults, apparently. I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome. While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical. Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.
Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society? It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere. Answer the question.
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I see what you're arguing, Whooter... That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements. Maybe, Maybe not. But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data). England is using it on adults, apparently. I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome. While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical. Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.
Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society? It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere. Answer the question.[/quote
:shamrock: :shamrock:
Are we reading the same thing, these kids are being screened for crimes they have already committed, are committing. The data will show what type of treatment method was used in other circumstances involving kids with similar crimes. 80,000 kids will go into the judicial system in Florida and that is just Florida, lets get the statistics for the rest of the country. This total will be staggering, how do you suggest they go about this ongoing problem. Yes there will be profiling, this is common practice in determining what criminals will do next. It helps keep your neighborhoods safe and keep these derelicts off the streets, while at the same time trying to get them help.
Man you folks can take a subject and travel to a universe that only exists in your mind. Micro-chips in minds is that what we got out of this article, Adolf Hilter, sci-fy channel, FBI/CIA, water-boarding.
They are trying to stem the constant drip of adolescence crimes that are being committed on a level that is overwhelming at times.
Lets see where this goes.
Danny
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Yes there will be profiling, this is common practice in determining what criminals will do next. It helps keep your neighborhoods safe and keep these derelicts off the streets, while at the same time trying to get them help.
Uh . . . "derelicts?" Sounds like you have a certain amount of prejudgment as to the character of those in question here, eh?
Moreover, can you offer proof that profiling has had an actual long term effect on crime?
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If Whooter's interpretation of the article were true, why would Florida need a computer model at all. Seems like a waste of money on the part of the state when anyone, say a case worker, could look at the offense a child has committed and decide the best course of action.
For example:
Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
Compared to:
12+ million dollar computer model: pi r squared to the 10th power, criteria, basis, factoring ......computing......output....best alternative to lockup = Family counseling.
How is this cost effective?
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DJJ Billing codes
1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Qxd5 3. Nc3 Qd6 4. Nf3 Nf6 5. d4 a6 6. g3 Bg4 7. Bg2 Nc6 8. O-O O-O-O 9. d5 Nb4 10. Bf4 Qc5 11. Be3 Qd6 12. h3 Bh5
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DJJ Billing codes
1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Qxd5 3. Nc3 Qd6 4. Nf3 Nf6 5. d4 a6 6. g3 Bg4 7. Bg2 Nc6 8. O-O O-O-O 9. d5 Nb4 10. Bf4 Qc5 11. Be3 Qd6 12. h3 Bh5
Redirection Project
http://http://www.evidencebasedassociates.com/what_we_do/redirection/index.html
In 2004, the State of Florida, Department of Juvenile Justice contracted with Evidence-Based Associates to launch the Redirection project in an effort to "redirect" troubled youth from residential placements to more effective, family-focused, evidence-based treatment options. The Redirection project focuses on two Blueprints for Violence Prevention model programs that have demonstrated strong positive outcomes in addressing the needs of delinquent youth and their families - Multisystemic Therapy and Functional Family Therapy. In 2008 Brief Strategic Family Therapy (BSFT) was added to the Redirection Program because of its success with Latino and African-American families.
Since inception, Redirection has expanded to 18 circuits, providing alternative, effective treatments for more than 3,100 troubled youth and families as of October 2008. Redirection programs have successfully addressed the mental health needs of referred youth and families, helping to promote a more functional family system based upon more effective parenting and improved communication between family members and those outside the family. A recent independent evaluation by the Justice Research Center shows that Redirection has significantly reduced felony adjudications and avoided nearly $40 million in residential placement costs.
"Using evidence-based family therapies allows us to build protective factors into the youth's home environment without shouldering the costs of residential placement," states Darryl Olson, former assistant secretary for probation and community intervention, Florida Department of Juvenile Justice. "Redirection is one of our effective intervention and treatment services that help turn around the lives of troubled youth."
Testimonials about Redirection
"The positive benefits of Redirection compared to residential commitment are sustained and increase over time."
OPPAGA Report June 2008
"Earlier this year, we joined the Redirection network of service providers and shifted to evidence-based programs - the results were immediate. We've learned to have faith in the model, to focus on the entire family, and work as a team with parents to affect positive change. One of the most important and immediate benefits of this approach is the change in attitude in the families - there is now hope where there once was none."
Kathy Trapp, LMHC, a Redirection therapist at VisionQuest
"Redirection services save the state approximately $27,059 per completion when compared to those completing low, moderate and high-risk residential placements."
Justice Research Center, 2007
"By keeping kids in their homes, it allows us to work with the entire family system - changing the way the family functions and preventing future crimes by all of the children in the home. It is challenging work, but it is also the most rewarding and effective work I've ever done with adolescents."
Aaron Runion, MS
"Nothing makes juvenile crime disappear, but research from around the country, and now Florida's own data and analysis, show that for many troubled youth the risk of committing future crimes can be cut in half if they receive effective interventions. Redirection successfully teaches families to control their delinquent children."
Fight Crime: Invest in Kids, 2007
"Long-term, not only can this approach prevent these adolescents from becoming involved with the justice system as adults, but it will also improve the relationships and communications between family members. Most importantly, the hope is that these children will become adults that use these effective parenting skills with their own children in the future, breaking the maladaptive cycle."
Tatyana Farietta-Murray, MD, Department of Child and Adolescent, Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Miami
"The level of cooperation, partnership and support that we've experienced with the Redirection project has been invaluable. Research proves that Blueprint programs work - the added ingredients of accountability, quality assurance, and teamwork have been critical to getting us to this level of success."
Linda Jewell Morgan, Vice President of Performance Improvement, Eckerd Youth Alternatives
hmmmmm......... :clown:
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Sometimes it's amazing how people don't give a shit about liberty.
The whole idea of "foretelling software" borders on the absurd..
WTF is this world coming to???
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I see what you're arguing, Whooter... That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements. Maybe, Maybe not. But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data). England is using it on adults, apparently. I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome. While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical. Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.
Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society? It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere. Answer the question.
I would never support someone losing their free will for any reason. But then we would have to consider someone trying to stab themselves, I think it would warrant an immediate intervention to stop them until they could get help.
...
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Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
...
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Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
...
Now this is one elaborate hypothetical (:
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Wow this really has gone on long enough..don't you all think.
I can't even bring myself to read the last two posts..
The idea of "foretelling software" is repulsive to me, as is anyone who would entertain an idea like this for more than a nanosecond.
Sometimes it's good to let threads like this one die; it hardly seems worth the effort...I'm sure there is more important news to talk about..
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Wow this really has gone on long enough..don't you all think.
I can't even bring myself to read the last two posts..
The idea of "foretelling software" is repulsive to me, as is anyone who would entertain an idea like this for more than a nanosecond.
Sometimes it's good to let threads like this one die; it hardly seems worth the effort...I'm sure there is more important news to talk about..
The "I just" thread has been going for a long time now. There is tons of reading and maybe that would be more interesting for you. I notice the posts are much shorter and there is very little disagreement and the topic doesnt vary too much.
...
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Yes there will be profiling, this is common practice in determining what criminals will do next. It helps keep your neighborhoods safe and keep these derelicts off the streets, while at the same time trying to get them help.
Uh . . . "derelicts?" Sounds like you have a certain amount of prejudgment as to the character of those in question here, eh?
Moreover, can you offer proof that profiling has had an actual long term effect on crime?
:shamrock: :shamrock:
Ursus I don't know if I was referring to the overall effect profiling has on squashing crime, I was saying they (cops/detectives) use profiling as part of there assessment of crime. Though I do have 2 brothers that are in law enforcement and part of my opinion came from them, all this talk about profiling has gotten way off track so where any profiling of any sort is bad.
I am sorry if you are offended with the word derelict, I guess you have never been arrested and incarcerated, it is then the word derelict is used, at least they used this word when referring to me.
The prejudgment comes from the article posted that says they are thinking of using IBM system to profile known criminals, did I miss something or are you just off on one of your crusades again.
Danny
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Sometimes it's amazing how people don't give a shit about liberty.
The whole idea of "foretelling software" borders on the absurd..
WTF is this world coming to???
:shamrock: :shamrock: :shamrock:
What is amazing is I am listening to rational, educated adults say it is crazy not to try and find a way to stop 80,000 youth offenders from taking your civil liberties away (speaking in general) when they commit a crime.
Froderik what do you want Florida to do ???????????? or for that matter any other state.
I hear everyone here getting up on their soap box doing what you usually do, digging up information to discredit this probable solution to a out of control problem, 6 to 7 of you everytime the same people jump into action to knock down a potential fix, without even knowing what exactly your talking about. Some of you don't even quote the article properly, you don't care what it has to say, you have your opinions and that is it.
Danny
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Wow this really has gone on long enough..don't you all think.
I can't even bring myself to read the last two posts..
The idea of "foretelling software" is repulsive to me, as is anyone who would entertain an idea like this for more than a nanosecond.
Sometimes it's good to let threads like this one die; it hardly seems worth the effort...I'm sure there is more important news to talk about..
The "I just" thread has been going for a long time now. There is tons of reading and maybe that would be more interesting for you.
...
I'd probably learn more on that thread, you're right.
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Sometimes it's amazing how people don't give a shit about liberty.
The whole idea of "foretelling software" borders on the absurd..
WTF is this world coming to???
:shamrock: :shamrock: :shamrock:
What is amazing is I am listening to rational, educated adults say it is crazy not to try and find a way to stop 80,000 youth offenders from taking your civil liberties away (speaking in general) when they commit a crime.
Froderik what do you want Florida to do ???????????? or for that matter any other state.
I don't know.....abide by the Constitution?
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I see what you're arguing, Whooter... That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements. Maybe, Maybe not. But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data). England is using it on adults, apparently. I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome. While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical. Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.
Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society? It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere. Answer the question.
I would never support someone losing their free will for any reason.
OK, Whooter, but what if the computer predicted that the person, because of his circumstances or whatever data, was a violent killer likely to go out and murder somebody. Say the chance was 95%. Say the person was arrested for punching a guy. Should he be sentenced for the crime of assault, or sent away for longer to potentially save a life? Let's assume for the purposes of this hypothetical that the computer is indeed accurate and there is a high likelihood the person in question would commit such a crime.
In such a circumstance, would you support such a device removing a person's free will? What if the predicted chance was 99%. What if the crime had already been committed?
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OK, Whooter, but what if the computer predicted that the person, because of his circumstances or whatever data, was a violent killer likely to go out and murder somebody. Say the chance was 95%. Say the person was arrested for punching a guy. Should he be sentenced for the crime of assault, or sent away for longer to potentially save a life? Let's assume for the purposes of this hypothetical that the computer is indeed accurate and there is a high likelihood the person in question would commit such a crime.
In such a circumstance, would you support such a device removing a person's free will? What if the predicted chance was 99%. What if the crime had already been committed?
I feel that this person should be talked to and they should assess the risk. A therapist should evaluate this man to determine if anything could be done to avert a murder. But he should not be arrested for a crime he did not commit. If he is found to be unstable then he should be treated for that condition.
It’s a sticky situation, though, think about it. If a person sends an email to a friend saying he is armed and heading to the library to shoot everyone who is there. Should the cops shoot this guy on site? Should they try to detain him? Should he be charged with attempted murder if they catch him on the road?
Its possible that this guy might have entered the library and aimed his weapon at people and decided that he just couldn’t do it. Maybe he would then put his weapon away and go home and there would be no crime. So the friend who received the email should not call the police to begin with because no crime has been committed yet?
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:shamrock: :shamrock:
I am curious, why are we going way out there with wild speculation as to how IBM will use this system. Is this massaging your ego in so far as satisfying your need pys, to advocate against anything that will eliminate self will for people. If that is the case I guess it is fine but I thought there was enough real information in the article to have a rational debate, seems were digging for whatever conversation we can have now.
I happen to agree with froderik this post has lost the appeal it could have had.
Danny
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Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more. In fact, in all likelihood, a good case worker who cares, will pick up more than a mere $12 billion computer program could ever predict or recommend. This happens during time spent with the kid, which does cost more than 0.4¢, I'm afraid.
In fact, it is precisely that time spent, that human to human interaction, which has the most potential for good, simply by the fact that it is human to human.
Not everyone is the same, not everyone's behavior can be so patly predicted, not everyone responds to the dynamics of the particular programs they are funneled to in equal fashion. Some programs, conceivably predicted based on previous behaviors and history, may even be an anathema to certain individuals due simply to their social and/or spatial needs. A good case worker is more likely to weigh in such factors, especially when combined with communication with the individual in question.
The fact is, it doesn't take really complicated software to make the jobs of the plebes on the front line easier. Too much software, on the other hand, can potentially take away from the human element which is, when you get right down to it, the main part of the job.
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
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Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more.
This could be. But how many good case workers do we have? What about the kid who ends up with a bad case worker? Or one having a bad day? I would rather get good consistent results.
The fact is, it doesn't take really complicated software to make the jobs of the plebes on the front line easier. Too much software, on the other hand, can potentially take away from the human element which is, when you get right down to it, the main part of the job.
I agree that they could do the same job (not as consistently or as quick). The same way GM could get rid of all the computers and have all the cars made by hand. The quality would drop off and the prices would rise considerably. But it could be done.
In fact, in all likelihood, a good case worker who cares, will pick up more than a mere $12 billion computer program could ever predict or recommend. This happens during time spent with the kid, which does cost more than 0.4¢, I'm afraid.
I am not sure how you can conclude this. The case workers will still be involved, Ursus, they will just have the added assistance of a program to help place the child on the right path. If they pick something up that isn’t in the computer then it would be added. That way it would be there for the next child and the next caseworker would benefit as would the child.
I used a billing rate of $100/hour. So the caseworker would cost thousands of dollars versus a few cents for the computer assessment.. The idea is to reduce the time the caseworker has to spend figure out what is the best route for this child to take.
In fact, it is precisely that time spent, that human to human interaction, which has the most potential for good, simply by the fact that it is human to human.
This I can agree with. The child isn’t going to be rehabilitated by the computer, Ursus. The computer is just going to recommend the best rehab direction to take. If anything human contact may be increased.
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, then it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
Why do you get so mad every time someone receives a paycheck for their hard work? Do you work for free? Do you expect everyone to just give away what they have and not expect compensation? Your argument does not make any sense. If the software package doesn’t hold any value then the word will get out very quickly and IBM will not be able to sell another package. If these kids get placed on a better track and the state can reduce the number of adults in prison by helping the teens then the investment will pay off and everyone wins.
How could this possibly be harmful for the child or the State?
...
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Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more.
This could be. But how many good case workers do we have? What about the kid who ends up with a bad case worker? Or one having a bad day? I would rather get good consistent results.
Try training those case workers better. Try paying those case workers more. Try not saddling them with 50% higher caseloads than is specified in their job description. Try appreciating them more where it counts. Try doing something about a toxic work environment where burn-out runs rampant and cynicism sets in quickly. How about Florida invests in its people and not some computer program that is unlikely to make an appreciable difference in the long run anyway.
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
Why do you get so mad every time someone receives a paycheck for their hard work? Do you work for free? Do you expect everyone to just give away what they have and not expect compensation? Your argument does not make any sense. If the software package doesn’t hold any value then the word will get out very quickly and IBM will not be able to sell another package. If these kids get placed on a better track and the state can reduce the number of adults in prison by helping the teens then the investment will pay off and everyone wins.
How could this possibly be harmful for the child or the State?
You truly can be diabolical sometimes. Where in hell's name did you come up with that conclusion? Classic Whooter twisting of a post to a completely different meaning.
Florida investing in its working people entails giving them a paycheck, and more, of course. How on earth you could twist that to mean the opposite is simply beyond my comprehension.
Makes me wonder just how much of a paycheck you get to do your dirty business here. :D
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Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more. In fact, in all likelihood, a good case worker who cares, will pick up more than a mere $12 billion computer program could ever predict or recommend. This happens during time spent with the kid, which does cost more than 0.4¢, I'm afraid.
In fact, it is precisely that time spent, that human to human interaction, which has the most potential for good, simply by the fact that it is human to human.
Not everyone is the same, not everyone's behavior can be so patly predicted, not everyone responds to the dynamics of the particular programs they are funneled to in equal fashion. Some programs, conceivably predicted based on previous behaviors and history, may even be an anathema to certain individuals due simply to their social and/or spatial needs. A good case worker is more likely to weigh in such factors, especially when combined with communication with the individual in question.
The fact is, it doesn't take really complicated software to make the jobs of the plebes on the front line easier. Too much software, on the other hand, can potentially take away from the human element which is, when you get right down to it, the main part of the job.
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
:shamrock: :shamrock:
Ursus, This is what I mean along with many others pull the plug on this post it is over, there are 80,000 kids just in Florida not including the rest of America. Case workers, one on one talks, fireside chats, maybe down to the creek to fish "Big Brother".
Not trying to insult but lets just move on we obviously don't get this one.
Everything in America fattens somebodies wallet you work for someone or yourself your somehow fattening your wallet off of something or somebody.
Danny
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You truly can be diabolical sometimes. Where in hell's name did you come up with that conclusion? Classic Whooter twisting of a post to a completely different meaning.
Right here:
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Florida investing in its working people entails giving them a paycheck, and more, of course. How on earth you could twist that to mean the opposite is simply beyond my comprehension.
This creates jobs, gets people off of welfare, opens up entry level positions as well as White collar employment. People who are employed pay taxes which helps to fuel government fiscal recovery.... etc.
Makes me wonder just how much of a paycheck you get to do your dirty business here.
It would be nice to get paid for doing this. Do you get paid for writing on fornits?
Try training those case workers better. Try paying those case workers more. Try not saddling them with 50% higher caseloads than is specified in their job description. Try appreciating them more where it counts. Try doing something about a toxic work environment where burn-out runs rampant and cynicism sets in quickly. How about Florida invests in its people and not some computer program that is unlikely to make an appreciable difference in the long run anyway.
How do you know it is unlikely to make a difference? Here is an interesting article on your state workers which may make a few people rethink the value of the software:
Article (http://http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-florida-child-welfare-workers-lied-071209,0,3634483.story)
During the past two years, more than 70 Florida child-welfare workers have been caught falsifying records -- lying about their on-the-job efforts to protect children, according to state and county records reviewed by the Orlando Sentinel.
As a consequence, the Florida Department of Children and Families temporarily lost track of at least six children, sometimes for months. Fourteen children were left in unsafe homes, the Sentinel found in a review of agency records.
Despite passage of a state law intended to punish cheaters, dishonest caseworkers remain a persistent problem in Florida's system to protect at-risk children:
•The day after a caseworker reported that she had inspected a foster home in Wildwood, police found its four foster children living in tents in the yard. The house had no running water, no food and no clean clothes.
•After a Hardee County social worker lied about making home visits, one child wound up living with an uncle awaiting trial on child-rape charges.
•Two children in Hernando County lived, for a time, with a grandfather who had been arrested two years earlier and accused of physically abusing his own child.
...
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You truly can be diabolical sometimes. Where in hell's name did you come up with that conclusion? Classic Whooter twisting of a post to a completely different meaning.
Right here:
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Florida investing in its working people entails giving them a paycheck, and more, of course. How on earth you could twist that to mean the opposite is simply beyond my comprehension.
This creates jobs, gets people off of welfare, opens up entry level positions as well as White collar employment. People who are employed pay taxes which helps to fuel government fiscal recovery.... etc.
Makes me wonder just how much of a paycheck you get to do your dirty business here.
It would be nice to get paid for doing this. Do you get paid for writing on fornits?
Try training those case workers better. Try paying those case workers more. Try not saddling them with 50% higher caseloads than is specified in their job description. Try appreciating them more where it counts. Try doing something about a toxic work environment where burn-out runs rampant and cynicism sets in quickly. How about Florida invests in its people and not some computer program that is unlikely to make an appreciable difference in the long run anyway.
How do you know it is unlikely to make a difference? Here is an interesting article on your state workers which may make a few people rethink the value of the software:
Article (http://http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-florida-child-welfare-workers-lied-071209,0,3634483.story)
During the past two years, more than 70 Florida child-welfare workers have been caught falsifying records -- lying about their on-the-job efforts to protect children, according to state and county records reviewed by the Orlando Sentinel.
As a consequence, the Florida Department of Children and Families temporarily lost track of at least six children, sometimes for months. Fourteen children were left in unsafe homes, the Sentinel found in a review of agency records.
Despite passage of a state law intended to punish cheaters, dishonest caseworkers remain a persistent problem in Florida's system to protect at-risk children:
•The day after a caseworker reported that she had inspected a foster home in Wildwood, police found its four foster children living in tents in the yard. The house had no running water, no food and no clean clothes.
•After a Hardee County social worker lied about making home visits, one child wound up living with an uncle awaiting trial on child-rape charges.
•Two children in Hernando County lived, for a time, with a grandfather who had been arrested two years earlier and accused of physically abusing his own child.
...
:shamrock: :shamrock:
Thank-You !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( WE ALL WANT CHILDREN SAFE AT ALL TIMES)
Danny