Getting honest about statistics

[Hamiltonf]

Anonymous said "Get honest!"
The only way to really know whether the "treatment" is valid is to look at the whole cross section of the people who have been referred to the program from scratch, and compare that to the whole of what comes out at the other end.
Consider these statistics about Toronto's Drug Court, which has been heralded as a success. (Canadian Bar Association, November 2003)
517 accused referred to the court.
329 accepted into the program of whom, 72% were expelled or withdrew, 13% graduated, 14,5%are continuing in the program.
The recidivism rate was 55.5% compared to 72% among those who were not accepted.  Only 11.6% of graduates got into further trouble with the law compared to 63% of those expelled from the program.
So, if one assumes that all 517 had been correctly identified as having a drug "problem",only 43 of the 517 "graduated"  (or 12%).  If you add those still in the program the total rises to 90.  90 out of  517 is 17%.  So at best its a 17% success rate.  If you only consider the "graduates"  the stats are no better than what you would find from a random sampling of all illicit drug users anyway.  In other words, these people could well have recovered without the treatment.  
But that isn't the only problem AARC would have --  there is no published research on AARC that would be available in the same way as these official statistics are available from a Court of public record.  
How many "referrals" are turned away from AARC as not fitting AARc's criteria for entering behaviour?  We don't know.  How is the program evaluated by credible outside agencies?  For example what does the Alberta Alcoholism and Drug Abuse Commission have to say about AARC?  Didn't AADAC fail AARC, but get a slap on the wrist from the politicians in Klein's Konservative Kabal who didn't know any better?
Oh, I know, a former Calgary School trustee tell's me , "I've seen the stats, and it's a good program."
Well there's a lot of lawyers and judges will read the stats about the Ontario Drug Court described above and say "yeah, it works!" But y'know what?  a trained statistician will tell you it's all spin.  So folks, remember, in Bush's Drug war, as Winston Churchill used to say, "It's lies, damned  lies and statistics"  
All we  have seen from AARC supporters on this  page is lies and damned lies, but no statistics.

So, AARC graduates, show me your statistics, and get honest!      
         
 


[ This Message was edited by: Hamiltonf on 2004-01-24 15:42 ]

[Anonymous]

Im clean. Im sober. not one lye here. I have a much better life. Research this. Sober 3 years live in BC now, with my parents. Can you tell me this is a lye? Im an AARC graduate. Im not lying. Im sorry I couldnt tell you any statistics. I am one though. I dont really care much for statistics cause, well I dont want to die today. I couldnt say that 3 years ago. Thanks to AA and AARc because without it I wouldnt know AA. Thanks AARC...:smile:

[BigJoshuaP]

Sober coming up on 9 years, pretty happy... have some good solid friends, education is going to be a challenge... that I am looking forward to. Where are you going with this Hammy?

[Anonymous]

Main Entry: LIE
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): lied; ly·ing  /'lI-i[ng]/

1 : to make an untrue statement with intent to deceive
2 : to create a false or misleading impression




Main Entry: LYE
Pronunciation: 'lI
Function: noun

1 : a strong alkaline liquor rich in potassium carbonate leached from wood ashes and used especially in making soap and washing; broadly : a strong alkaline solution (as of sodium hydroxide or potassium hydroxide)
2 : a solid caustic (as sodium hydroxide)

[Anonymous]

On 2004-12-12 13:57:00, BigJoshuaP wrote:

"Sober coming up on 9 years, pretty happy... have some good solid friends, education is going to be a challenge... that I am looking forward to. Where are you going with this Hammy? "

Not to the place that you have so obviously been visiting....
http://objective.jesussave.us/kidz.html

I suppose you believe that the earth was created 40 thousand years ago too

[Anonymous]

On 2004-08-26 00:16:00, Anonymous wrote:

" I dont really care much for statistics cause, well I dont want to die today. I couldnt say that 3 years ago. Thanks AARC...:smile:"

Holy sheepshit batman.  I have to say as a former staff graduate of an AARC similiar program (16 years ago) that I am soooooooooo glad that I no longer see drug use vs. sobriety as quantifiable in terms of the neverending battle of good vs. evil or far worse, life and death. I congratulate you for your three years of sobriety. I know that it is not an easy feat to accomplish.  However, nothing is more cultish-icky-yucky-heeby-jeeby than the notion of "leave us and you will die, stop going to AA and you will die, return to drugs and you will die, go back around druggie friends and hangouts and you will die".  Statistically speaking, the odds of you keeping your sobriety and dying a sober person are stacked against you.  
I am glad that you don't care about said statistics.

[Anonymous]

Why do replies to this thread keep getting deleted?

[velvet2000]

The purpose of this forum is to serve as a safe anonymous support network for survivors of AARC. AARC staff post replies, topics etc, which are typically hostile towards survivors, and  untruthful about "aarc recovery". Because they are not using the forum for its purpose and are creating a "rap" or "blast rap" forum instead, those staff members are not given a voice here. The description of this forum clearly states its purpose and the rules for posting. Any topic that does not add to the feeling of safety and support for AARC grads has no place here and should be posted somewhere else on the enormous world wide web where there is always room for discussion of any flavor.

[Anonymous]

yeah, but it just creates an atmosphere of doubt, IMO.  Don't get me wrong, I fully understand and support the need for a safe place to talk about this kind of shit but I've seen on other Fornits forums how if you let them spout off it's there for everyone to see.  They reveal the truth in their own posts and on a few occasions some have really seen what a destructive hold and effect it had on them.  

No one who is out has anything to fear from them anymore and the more rope you give these people the better, IMO.  Remember, the truth is on YOUR side. :tup:

[BigJoshuaP]

On 2004-12-15 11:18:00, velvet2000 wrote:

"The purpose of this forum is to serve as a safe anonymous support network for survivors of AARC. AARC staff post replies, topics etc, which are typically hostile towards survivors, and  untruthful about "aarc recovery". Because they are not using the forum for its purpose and are creating a "rap" or "blast rap" forum instead, those staff members are not given a voice here. The description of this forum clearly states its purpose and the rules for posting. Any topic that does not add to the feeling of safety and support for AARC grads has no place here and should be posted somewhere else on the enormous world wide web where there is always room for discussion of any flavor. "

Marnie, you delete posts that arent even harmful to your "cause"  :roll: You delete posts that make sense and throw doubt at people. Im not on staff... I have been out of there for ove 7.5 years! I think you were lost...and needed to fit in somewhere...so you find all of the aarc haters who couldnt look after themselves and gave them a place to vent.. As for "surviving" - the simple fact that you are alive today is probably a symbol of what aarc has done for you, even though you continually negate any gratitude towards the place.

[Hamiltonf]

On 2004-12-15 11:30:00, Anonymous wrote:

"yeah, but it just creates an atmosphere of doubt, IMO.  Don't get me wrong, I fully understand and support the need for a safe place to talk about this kind of shit but I've seen on other Fornits forums how if you let them spout off it's there for everyone to see.  They reveal the truth in their own posts and on a few occasions some have really seen what a destructive hold and effect it had on them.  

I can understand that especially if you can see what is said in its full context.  

No one who is out has anything to fear from them anymore and the more rope you give these people the better, IMO.  Remember, the truth is on YOUR side. ::read::

[velvet2000]

On 2004-12-15 11:30:00, Anonymous wrote:

"yeah, but it just creates an atmosphere of doubt, IMO.  Don't get me wrong, I fully understand and support the need for a safe place to talk about this kind of shit but I've seen on other Fornits forums how if you let them spout off it's there for everyone to see.  They reveal the truth in their own posts and on a few occasions some have really seen what a destructive hold and effect it had on them.  



No one who is out has anything to fear from them anymore and the more rope you give these people the better, IMO.  Remember, the truth is on YOUR side. :tup: "

Thanks anonymous. I think the difference between our forum and Kids/Straights forums is that AARC is still up and running and there are many new graduates. Those new graduates are still living near AARC, living with family who may still be a part of it etc. Those grads are all lurking these sites and contacting us privately but they don't want to post because they don't want to partake in the AARC atmosphere. They start posting when the AARC staff are quiet, and then the AARC staff start posting out of fear once those grads make their posts. You are right that it shows their true colors, and it's educational for outsiders to read such posts, and many posts are left on for that very reason. But all in all I'd really just like these new grads to know that they don't have to listen to that stuff anymore, and that they can come here to anonymously say how they feel without having a derogatory response. It's important right now that these grads have a place to do this. I'm sorry if it's offensive to some people, but the only posts which are deleted are the hostile ones or any post coming from the same IP as a person who has made a hostile post.

[Anonymous]

On 2004-12-15 15:49:00, BigJoshuaP wrote:

"the simple fact that you are alive today is probably a symbol of what aarc has done for you"

A simple comment was made last night about how that sounded very cultlike.  The intention was to place emphasis on the power and influence of stepcraft even 9 years into Big JP's sobriety.  This morning, my post was gone.  I haven't a clue why that post was deleted.  Forums are for discussion and when that discussion is quashed, the forum's purpose becomes self serving in nature.  No matter what the intention of the moderator/admin is, the forum must be flexible enough to grow, evolve, and foster free speech.  I can certainly understand the edit of posts that could be harmful to those fresh out of AARC seeking a network of support, however the post that was most recently deleted was harmless in my own opinion.  Velvet, can you please explain how that post violated your terms?

[velvet2000]

I don't remember the post. It's possible that I deleted it accidentally if it was a reply to one of Josh's because he posts so frequently and I don't have the time to read them all. Or if your response quoted the entire context of Josh's post I may have thought I was still deleting the same one. I don't have any intention to censor you, so if I deleted a normal response from you I'm sorry, and you are welcome to post it again.

[Anonymous]

On 2004-12-16 09:46:00, velvet2000 wrote:

"I don't remember the post. It's possible that I deleted it accidentally if it was a reply to one of Josh's because he posts so frequently and I don't have the time to read them all. Or if your response quoted the entire context of Josh's post I may have thought I was still deleting the same one. I don't have any intention to censor you, so if I deleted a normal response from you I'm sorry, and you are welcome to post it again.



"

Understood.  Thanks Velvet.