IBM's new foretelling software to be used by Florida DOC

[Froderik]

Lord have mercy...

Innocent til proven guilty...

/thread

[Whooter]

Exactly.  I think that is where many are missing the point here,Frod.  These kids have enough problems without being forced into programs they don’t need.  Why put a kid into a drug rehab program if he doesn’t need it? Or isn’t involved in drugs? When these kids commit crimes and end up in juvy they should be helped in the specific area that they need help in, not some cookie cutter program which covers a variety of topics.
 
This will save the state money and at the same time target each childs specific needs.  I wouldn’t want my kids being forced to learn about the dangers of gins in the home or drug re-education if it didn’t apply.



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[Antigen]

Whooter, you're arguing against the very thing you seem to think you support; screening kids for treatment for crimes they haven't committed yet.

Amazing!

[Whooter]

Well the kids that are going to be treated have “already committed” a crime.  No one is going to be taken off the street and put into rehab for crimes they have not committed.  The screening process will help authorities to better help these kids while they are incarcerated.  They are not going to have the kids spend their time in juvy and then add extra cost to send them to a program.  They are going to integrate the specific programs into their time served.

Have any of you given thought that if a simple article like this (which is clearly spelled out) is so badly misinterpreted and twisted to the point that many here believe it to be like the movie “minority report”.  Then how are we to interpret your own experiences as survivors and your time inside a program as you present them for us?  Should we expect that you would knowingly misinterpret this program that is going into place in Florida but are telling the truth about your own experiences?

Just something to think about from a readers standpoint.



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[Antigen]

Uhmmm....

--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.

[Whooter]

Uhmmm....

--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.

Keep reading…..

More than 85,000 youth enter the juvenile justice system in Florida each year for varying degrees of offenses – from drug abuse to robbery or property crimes. As each youth enters the system for a different reason and with varying backgrounds, the best program for positive rehabilitation is very specific – what may work for one juvenile may not work for another.

Antigen,  The kids will be profiled as they enter the system.  An appropriate rehabilitation program will be identified at that point.  These kids have already committed a crime.  There is no intent on driving around and plucking kids off the streets and putting them in programs.



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[psy]

I see what you're arguing, Whooter...  That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements.  Maybe, Maybe not.  But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data).   England is using it on adults, apparently.  I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome.  While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical.  Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.

Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society?  It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere.  Answer the question.

[DannyB II]

I see what you're arguing, Whooter...  That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements.  Maybe, Maybe not.  But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data).   England is using it on adults, apparently.  I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome.  While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical.  Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.

Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society?  It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere.  Answer the question.[/quote


 :shamrock:  :shamrock:

Are we reading the same thing, these kids are being screened for crimes they have already committed, are committing. The data will show what type of treatment method was used in other circumstances involving kids with similar crimes. 80,000 kids will go into the judicial system in Florida and that is just Florida, lets get the statistics for the rest of the country. This total will be staggering, how do you suggest they go about this ongoing problem. Yes there will be profiling, this is common practice in determining what criminals will do next. It helps keep your neighborhoods safe and keep these derelicts off the streets, while at the same time trying to get them help.
 Man you folks can take a subject and travel to a universe that only exists in your mind. Micro-chips in minds is that what we got out of this article, Adolf Hilter, sci-fy channel, FBI/CIA, water-boarding.
They are trying to stem the constant drip of adolescence crimes that are being committed on a level that is overwhelming at times.
Lets see where this goes.

Danny

[Ursus]

Yes there will be profiling, this is common practice in determining what criminals will do next. It helps keep your neighborhoods safe and keep these derelicts off the streets, while at the same time trying to get them help.

Uh . . . "derelicts?" Sounds like you have a certain amount of prejudgment as to the character of those in question here, eh?

Moreover, can you offer proof that profiling has had an actual long term effect on crime?

[wdtony]

If Whooter's interpretation of the article were true, why would Florida need a computer model at all. Seems like a waste of money on the part of the state when anyone, say a case worker, could look at the offense a child has committed and decide the best course of action.

For example:

Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!

Compared to:

12+ million dollar computer model: pi r squared to the 10th power, criteria, basis, factoring ......computing......output....best alternative to lockup = Family counseling.

How is this cost effective?

[Julia Kochetkova]

DJJ Billing codes

1. e4 d5   2. exd5 Qxd5   3. Nc3 Qd6   4. Nf3 Nf6   5. d4 a6   6. g3 Bg4   7. Bg2 Nc6   8. O-O O-O-O   9. d5 Nb4   10. Bf4 Qc5   11. Be3 Qd6   12. h3 Bh5

[Eliscu2]

DJJ Billing codes

1. e4 d5   2. exd5 Qxd5   3. Nc3 Qd6   4. Nf3 Nf6   5. d4 a6   6. g3 Bg4   7. Bg2 Nc6   8. O-O O-O-O   9. d5 Nb4   10. Bf4 Qc5   11. Be3 Qd6   12. h3 Bh5

Redirection Project

http://http://www.evidencebasedassociates.com/what_we_do/redirection/index.html

In 2004, the State of Florida, Department of Juvenile Justice contracted with Evidence-Based Associates to launch the Redirection project in an effort to "redirect" troubled youth from residential placements to more effective, family-focused, evidence-based treatment options. The Redirection project focuses on two Blueprints for Violence Prevention model programs that have demonstrated strong positive outcomes in addressing the needs of delinquent youth and their families - Multisystemic Therapy and Functional Family Therapy. In 2008 Brief Strategic Family Therapy (BSFT) was added to the Redirection Program because of its success with Latino and African-American families.

Since inception, Redirection has expanded to 18 circuits, providing alternative, effective treatments for more than 3,100 troubled youth and families as of October 2008. Redirection programs have successfully addressed the mental health needs of referred youth and families, helping to promote a more functional family system based upon more effective parenting and improved communication between family members and those outside the family. A recent independent evaluation by the Justice Research Center shows that Redirection has significantly reduced felony adjudications and avoided nearly $40 million in residential placement costs.

"Using evidence-based family therapies allows us to build protective factors into the youth's home environment without shouldering the costs of residential placement," states Darryl Olson, former assistant secretary for probation and community intervention, Florida Department of Juvenile Justice. "Redirection is one of our effective intervention and treatment services that help turn around the lives of troubled youth."


Testimonials about Redirection
"The positive benefits of Redirection compared to residential commitment are sustained and increase over time."
OPPAGA Report June 2008
 

"Earlier this year, we joined the Redirection network of service providers and shifted to evidence-based programs - the results were immediate. We've learned to have faith in the model, to focus on the entire family, and work as a team with parents to affect positive change. One of the most important and immediate benefits of this approach is the change in attitude in the families - there is now hope where there once was none."
Kathy Trapp, LMHC, a Redirection therapist at VisionQuest

"Redirection services save the state approximately $27,059 per completion when compared to those completing low, moderate and high-risk residential placements."
Justice Research Center, 2007

"By keeping kids in their homes, it allows us to work with the entire family system - changing the way the family functions and preventing future crimes by all of the children in the home. It is challenging work, but it is also the most rewarding and effective work I've ever done with adolescents."
Aaron Runion, MS

"Nothing makes juvenile crime disappear, but research from around the country, and now Florida's own data and analysis, show that for many troubled youth the risk of committing future crimes can be cut in half if they receive effective interventions. Redirection successfully teaches families to control their delinquent children."
Fight Crime: Invest in Kids, 2007

"Long-term, not only can this approach prevent these adolescents from becoming involved with the justice system as adults, but it will also improve the relationships and communications between family members. Most importantly, the hope is that these children will become adults that use these effective parenting skills with their own children in the future, breaking the maladaptive cycle."
Tatyana Farietta-Murray, MD, Department of Child and Adolescent, Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Miami

"The level of cooperation, partnership and support that we've experienced with the Redirection project has been invaluable. Research proves that Blueprint programs work - the added ingredients of accountability, quality assurance, and teamwork have been critical to getting us to this level of success."
Linda Jewell Morgan, Vice President of Performance Improvement, Eckerd Youth Alternatives

hmmmmm......... :clown:

[Froderik]

Sometimes it's amazing how people don't give a shit about liberty.

The whole idea of "foretelling software" borders on the absurd..

WTF is this world coming to???

[Whooter]

I see what you're arguing, Whooter...  That this system will result in fewer and more appropriate program placements.  Maybe, Maybe not.  But the fact remains that these kids are being sentenced not on what they have done, but what they are likely do do in the future (according to the computer based on god knows who's programming and data).   England is using it on adults, apparently.  I don't care what a computer says is the most likely outcome.  While punishment is certainly appropriate if the kids have caused harm to others, changing a person's way of thinking against one's will is unethical.  Using the system you propose, justice would possibly be more practical, but it would also be a lot less fair.

Whooter, would you support a system where criminals were implanted with computer chips in their brain removing their free will but creating productive members of society?  It sounds sci-fy but I'm going somewhere.  Answer the question.

I would never support someone losing their free will for any reason.  But then we would have to consider someone trying to stab themselves, I think it would warrant an immediate intervention to stop them until they could get help.



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[Whooter]

Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!

Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street.  The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members.  He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months.  He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member.  He admits to smoking marijuana.  His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself.  Adults in the household are rarely home.  The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.

The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.

Caseworker 1:  Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him.  Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money.  Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy!  If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.

(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)


Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…

1.  like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
 
2.   If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
 
3.   Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.

4.   Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.

5.   Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.

There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).

Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail.  It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life.  Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).

(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)



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