IBM's new foretelling software to be used by Florida DOC

[Ursus]

Here's IBM's press release on this news, in case anyone hasn't read it yet:

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Florida Department of Juvenile Justice to Reduce Rate of Re-offenders with IBM Predictive Analytics
Press Release Source: SPSS On Wednesday April 14, 2010, 9:00 am EDT

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.

More than 85,000 youth enter the juvenile justice system in Florida each year for varying degrees of offenses – from drug abuse to robbery or property crimes. As each youth enters the system for a different reason and with varying backgrounds, the best program for positive rehabilitation is very specific – what may work for one juvenile may not work for another.

Mark Greenwald, chief of research and planning at the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, said, “The State of Florida believes that if youth are rehabilitated with effective prevention, intervention and treatment services early in life, juveniles will not enter the adult corrections system. Our goal is to ensure juveniles do not return to the system. IBM SPSS predictive analytics will allow our organization to refine our current practice and better intervene in juvenile lives earlier to help them become — and stay — law abiding citizens.”

The organization selected IBM predictive analytics to improve its existing screening and placement process. With the new analytics system in place, Florida Department of Juvenile Justice will analyze key predictors such as past offense history, home life environment, gang affiliation and peer associations to better understand and predict which youths have a higher likelihood to reoffend.

With that information, the organization can more effectively place specific segments of juveniles into the best programs for rehabilitation. For example, juveniles identified as having a higher likelihood for re-offense can be placed in a more focused program, such as one that addresses issues on substance abuse or mental health, if appropriate to the need. Additionally, the organization will direct those youth with a lower chance of re-offense to a less restrictive program, again providing services better tailored to meet their rehabilitative needs.

Prior to predictive analytics, the organization used Excel for basic analysis on projections for the number of delinquency cases they would take in, which had limited functionality. They selected IBM SPSS predictive analytics due to the ease of use and the advanced analytic capabilities.

The organization will now utilize the new predictive analytics system as a component in many of the performance measurement analyses conducted and distributed to agency staff throughout the year. These reports assess the future of delinquency cases to evaluate what juvenile crime trends may look like in the immediate future. This information will help the organization to better plan and project staffing and other resource needs.

IBM recently also announced that the Ministry of Justice in the United Kingdom uses predictive analytics to assess the likelihood of prisoners reoffending upon their release to help improve public safety. With predictive technology from IBM, the Ministry of Justice is analyzing hidden trends and patterns within the data. IBM SPSS predictive analytics has helped identify whether offenders with specific problems such as drug and alcohol misuse are more likely to reoffend than other prisoners.

Deepak Advani, vice president of predictive analytics at IBM, said, “Predictive analytics gives government organizations worldwide a highly-sophisticated and intelligent source to create safer communities by identifying, predicting, responding to and preventing criminal activities. It gives the criminal justice system the ability to draw upon the wealth of data available to detect patterns, make reliable projections and then take the appropriate action in real time to combat crime and protect citizens.”

IBM has invested more than $12 billion to build an analytics portfolio which includes organic innovation and acquisitions. In addition, IBM has assembled 4,000 analytics consultants with industry expertise, and opened a network of seven analytics centers of excellence. Today, IBM is working with more than 250,000 clients worldwide on predictive analytics, including 22 of the top 24 global commercial banks, 18 of the world's top 22 telecommunication carriers and 11 of the top 12 U.S. specialty retailers.

To learn more about SPSS, an IBM Company, please visit: http://www.spss.com

To learn more about IBM business analytics please visit: http://www.ibm.com/gbs/bao

Contact:

Christina Preiss, SPSS, an IBM Company
[email protected]
(312) 651-3437


Copyright © 2010 Yahoo! All rights reserved.

[Whooter]

Geeezz. You're really on a roll today, eh? Buy into what, Whooter?

This issue of tracking and profiling software must really stick in your craw somehow.

Not at all.  Its a discussion.  I was  curious by why you toss a photo from 1937 to discredit a software package developed today to avoid discussing it.

Oh, and I did read the original press release shortly after the OP was posted. While I agree that the software is not overtly intended to "arrest kids before they commit a crime," I do have concerns that that possibility may very well happen ... considering human nature and the feasibility of being judged guilty by association alone.
...Florida Department of Juvenile Justice will analyze key predictors such as past offense history, home life environment, gang affiliation and peer associations to better understand and predict which youths have a higher likelihood to reoffend.
I can practically guarantee ya that growing up on the wrong side of the tracks is one of the predictors in that database; more tactfully phrased, of course.

Sure it could be used for the wrong reason the same as nuclear energy or the enrichment of uranium can be.  But presently using predictors of where the child lives and who he hangs out with may prove valuable in helping them avoid re entering the prison system.

If a child is living in a high crime area (wrong side of the tracks) then it may benefit him to be educated specifically in this area. They could target these kids and get them the help they need and then measure their success rates.  Kids in gangs would receive different education than say kids living in abusive households.  If a young girls’ mother is a prostitute or lives in an area which is more densely populated with prostitution (or fits the profile) then it may benefit her to be educated in this area so that she may have a better chance to avoid this path.

Incidentally, since when has profiling target populations ever even made a significant dent in crime anyway?

I don’t really know.  As a society we usually spend all our time and resources reacting to problems that have already occurred.  We hire police to chase people around and put them in jail after the fact.  I think it is a good idea to try to reduce the crime rate by avoiding the crime to begin with. That way we need less police, people are safer and the kids are not committing crimes and therefore are more productive and happier in society.  Its all upside.



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[wdtony]

Why doesn't the state of Florida just lock up every kid in the state? You never know when they might start hanging out with the wrong crowd.

Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.

The software to more appropriately curb juvenile crime might be created to focus on local societies as a whole, including all local government, parents and juvenile offendors etc. for the purposes of improving living conditions for all.

But to lock up anyone against their will without a crime having been committed undermines basic human liberties. I read that this was once the reason Americans fought and died in wars. We have a statue.

[Julia Kochetkova]

Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.

Would "Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature" apply to children sent to programs?

[Whooter]

Why doesn't the state of Florida just lock up every kid in the state? You never know when they might start hanging out with the wrong crowd.

Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.

The software to more appropriately curb juvenile crime might be created to focus on local societies as a whole, including all local government, parents and juvenile offendors etc. for the purposes of improving living conditions for all.

But to lock up anyone against their will without a crime having been committed undermines basic human liberties. I read that this was once the reason Americans fought and died in wars. We have a statue.

wdtony, its just the opposite of what you are thinking,  the software will be used to help kids who are already in jail or juvy.  Kids who are in jail for various offenses will receive services based on the childs risks after they are released.  For example if a child is going to be released into a family which will expose her to prostitution then this child will receive education which which will help her (in her specific area of risk) so that she heads down a better path and will not end up back in jail as an adult.
This is a move away from the cookie cutter approach of having all offenders attend AA or Na meetings (or other training) whether they are at-risk in those areas or not and focus more on their specific needs.

The whole idea is to "Not" lock up the kids and to reduce the number of kids becoming adult offenders.



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[wdtony]

Why doesn't the state of Florida just lock up every kid in the state? You never know when they might start hanging out with the wrong crowd.

Teenagers are generally crazy and stupid by nature, this is not abnormal behavior. Before a person matures, a person makes mistakes and mostly learns from them. That is, if they have been guided correctly by their parents to a certain degree.

The software to more appropriately curb juvenile crime might be created to focus on local societies as a whole, including all local government, parents and juvenile offendors etc. for the purposes of improving living conditions for all.

But to lock up anyone against their will without a crime having been committed undermines basic human liberties. I read that this was once the reason Americans fought and died in wars. We have a statue.

wdtony, its just the opposite of what you are thinking,  the software will be used to help kids who are already in jail or juvy.  Kids who are in jail for various offenses will receive services based on the childs risks after they are released.  For example if a child is going to be released into a family which will expose her to prostitution then this child will receive education which which will help her (in her specific area of risk) so that she heads down a better path and will not end up back in jail as an adult.
This is a move away from the cookie cutter approach of having all offenders attend AA or Na meetings (or other training) whether they are at-risk in those areas or not and focus more on their specific needs.

The whole idea is to "Not" lock up the kids and to reduce the number of kids becoming adult offenders.



...

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.


The way I was reading it ( since these articles are so nonspecific ) it seemed to me that kids will be placed in programs after they have served their time in juvy. To me this seems like being locked up twice depending upon the definition of the word program. I get the impression that eventually kids will be "placed" before they offend which is a slippery slope. I stand by my interpretation of these articles based on my own life experience.

[Whooter]

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.


The way I was reading it ( since these articles are so nonspecific ) it seemed to me that kids will be placed in programs after they have served their time in juvy. To me this seems like being locked up twice depending upon the definition of the word program. I get the impression that eventually kids will be "placed" before they offend which is a slippery slope. I stand by my interpretation of these articles based on my own life experience.

I can see how many would read it this way.  But you need to keep in mind that one of the main goals is to reduce cost.  So the state isn’t going to take kids coming out of juvy and then pay to place them in another program.  The software will be used to better define individualized rehabilitation of kids entering the juvenile justice system and hopefully reduce their stay there, make it more productive and have an effect which would prevent them from coming back.

I am sensitive to when regulars here on fornits see the word program they think of brainwashing or mind control.  But outside of fornits a “program” can be very benign and means a definition of rehabilitation.  The program could be that the child sees a therapist everyday or an educator on the dangers of prostitution etc.



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[psy]

I dont see where this software violates any human rights.  The whole idea is to help these kids so that they dont end up in adult facilities when they get older.  I havent been able to identify any down side to this.  It is very proactive in my opinion.
I just hope they collect data so that they can measure how effective the software use is.



...

You need to watch minority report.  What IBM is doing is basically justifying arresting people for future-crime, and we don't even know if it works.  Even if it did, however, it would still be unethical to use.  Perhaps it does result in "greater good" (which you're all about), but it's at the cost of essential personal liberty.  How would you like it if you were just misunderstood and because of some wild data about your life you were deprived of liberty and forced into "treatment" for something that may not be a disease, just parts of the way you are.  Not everybody fits into a mold.  To profile like this is prejudice, regardless of how "fair" the programming is.

I can practically guarantee ya that growing up on the wrong side of the tracks is one of the predictors in that database

I can believe that.  After all, raw statistics can justify such a thing.  Lower income (minorities) means a greater propensity to crime.  Prejudice is rational, as is profiling.  Ursus is right.  Nazis rationalized a lot, like you do, Whooter.  And so many in this country are on a similiar slippery slope.

IBM recently also announced that the Ministry of Justice in the United Kingdom uses predictive analytics to assess the likelihood of prisoners reoffending upon their release to help improve public safety. With predictive technology from IBM, the Ministry of Justice is analyzing hidden trends and patterns within the data."

Wow.  Creepy.  Do you really want to live in a world where your sentence could be defined by the results of unknown data processed by a computer using an unknown method?  What ever happened to a jury of peers.

[Antigen]

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SPSS, an IBM (NYSE: IBM - News) Company, today announced that the Florida State Department of Juvenile Justice selected IBM predictive analytics software to reduce recidivism by determining which juveniles are likely to reoffend. Identified at-risk youth can then be placed in programs specific to the best course of treatment to ensure offenders do not re-enter the juvenile justice system.


The way I was reading it ( since these articles are so nonspecific ) it seemed to me that kids will be placed in programs after they have served their time in juvy. To me this seems like being locked up twice depending upon the definition of the word program. I get the impression that eventually kids will be "placed" before they offend which is a slippery slope. I stand by my interpretation of these articles based on my own life experience.

I can see how many would read it this way.

Me too; cause that's the way it's written.

But you need to keep in mind that one of the main goals is to reduce cost.  

I have no such need or desire. You seem to want everybody to think this way. But that does not translate to a need on my part.

So the state isn’t going to take kids coming out of juvy and then pay to place them in another program.  The software will be used to better define individualized rehabilitation of kids entering the juvenile justice system and hopefully reduce their stay there, make it more productive and have an effect which would prevent them from coming back.

Sure, that would save personal involvement and the hard work of thinking on the part of the people making these decisions. Ask Martin Lee Anderson's surviving family how much they trust the Florida DJJ to make such decisions. See what the White House Boys think of this innovative idea.

I am sensitive to when regulars here on fornits see the word program they think of brainwashing or mind control.  But outside of fornits a “program” can be very benign and means a definition of rehabilitation.  The program could be that the child sees a therapist everyday or an educator on the dangers of prostitution etc.

What color is the sky in your world? Florida CYS and DJJ are notorious throughout the world for  abuse and negligence. The way I see it, having grown up in Florida, this is just one more way for the people making these decisions to dodge responsibility. "Hey, don't blame me, the computer clearly indicated that this was the right thing to do."

You know how Florida cops determine "Gang affiliation"? If they see a kid talking, however, casually with a kid who they believe is involved in a gang, that kid then gets tagged. From that point, anyone who that newly tagged kid hangs out with gets similarly tagged as "suspected gang affiliate". This brings in funding and also provides a measure of "CYA" to any officer who may have dealings with that kid at any time in the future.

This is a terrible idea, so I'm not too surprised to see you support it.

[psy]

Slashdot has interesting commentary on the subject:
http://yro.slashdot.org/story/10/04/16/ ... ?art_pos=7

Do you think that there is any realistic chance that having a Respected Criminologist(who knows how to wear a suit that makes him look like a respected authority figure; but not a pointy-headed academic) tell the jury that the Totally Trustworthy and Extremely Sophisticated Computer System has determined that the punk-ass kid currently in the dock before you is an incipient menace won't be a completely standard part of prosecution down there within a few years?

Despite the combined efforts of virtually every major consumer software vendor, Joe Public still somehow trusts computers and thinks of them as authoritative. DAs and prosecutors will absolutely eat that shit up, as will jurors.

Just think - if England would have had a technology similar to this in the 18th century, it would have "discovered" all the rebellious founding fathers, and America never would have had a chance to earn it's freedom. The potential for heinous abuse by the government of this system far outweighs any benefit it may offer. Shame on you IBM. Again.

The best part is, if the software doesn't currently consider you a "threat" we can always tweak it to push you over the threshold! Remember that come next election, or next time you purchase something we don't think you should, or even the next time you pass us and don't give us a compliment!

New corporate slogan: "IBM an Integrated Best of Breed Final Solutions Provider"?

"Mrs. King, we have determined that your son Martin is statistically likely to grow up to be a troublemaker. We advise you begin Prozac treatments to curb these tendencies and allow him to live a normal life. Now please move to be back of the bus."

[Whooter]

I take from the responses that many here have never read the original article.  I believe Ursus posted it a few posts back.  The kids that are going to get the “Profiled” help have already committed a crime.  The state of Florida isn’t taking kids off the street and putting them in programs because of where they live.  This profiling is designed to try to help target what may help the kids.  Why put a child through a mandatory drug rehab program if he isn’t really addicted to drugs?  Why not address some of his family issues which may have lead him to Juvy?  Why should we be satisfied with the same abusive system that Florida has, Why not improve it and tailor Rehabilitation for each child?  It seems to be a knee jerk reaction for many here to close your ears anytime there is talk about helping kids and try to twist it into brainwashing abusing kids somehow.  As a society we cant just sit back and tolerate kids breaking the law and then letting them run free again without addressing the root cause or providing them help.  Instead of tossing these kids in  juvy hall why not target what is driving them to commit crimes and getting them some help?

Change isn’t a bad thing..,  I am sure there will be many organizations who will be watching this closely to see how successful this is and which path it takes.

I did see Minority Report and it was a great film, but I think you confused the first posted article where the writer insinuated that these kids were going to be arrested prior to committing a crime and this isnt the case.  The state of Georgia went thru similar struggles with profiling when the majority of the police force were patrolling high crime areas but the majority of the people (tax payers)paying their salaries were getting less protection because they lived in lower crime areas.  The police force argued that statistically there was a higher risk of crime in those areas... so they were profiling.  Many didnt think it was legal.

If a kid was arrested for robbing a store and had some drugs on him why automatically toss him in juvy and send him to NA meetings.  Most kids who use drugs at a young age are not addicted.  Why not help this kid figure out why he is stuck in the downturn?

Sorry, I jumped around alot.



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[psy]

I take from the responses that many here have never read the original article.  I believe Ursus posted it a few posts back.  The kids that are going to get the “Profiled” help have already committed a crime.

Oh I understand that.  But it's still judging whether they will commit another crime in the future.  With this system the punishment doesn't fit the crime, it fits some steriotype of a person cooked up by a computer based on god knows who's criteria.

As a society we cant just sit back and tolerate kids breaking the law and then letting them run free again without addressing the root cause or providing them help.

Of course we can't let criminals who have harmed others go.  They should be judged on each crime individually, not for what they will probably do in the future.

If a kid was arrested for robbing a store and had some drugs on him why automatically toss him in juvy and send him to NA meetings.

Because it's religious indoctrination which violates the establishment clause and there is no evidence at all that NA works.  I'l all for jail if a crime (that hurts others) has been committed but treatment should always be voluntary, and there should be an alternative to NA in prisons.

[Eliscu2]

This reminds me of the Violence Initiative. http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQZdUmxG1Es
They had a "Weed and Seed" program for intercity kids.
They weeded them all into Juvi and oops forgot to seed...........

[Whooter]

Oh I understand that. But it's still judging whether they will commit another crime in the future. With this system the punishment doesn't fit the crime, it fits some steriotype of a person cooked up by a computer based on god knows who's criteria.

If a kid lives on a boat it may be a good idea to get him swimming lessons.  Maybe even force him to if he refuses. Doesn’t need to be voluntary.  The kid living in the dessert may want to learn a little more about snakes.  There is nothing wrong with this.  Looking at a childs environment and determining what may help him survive and live a good life isn’t wrong, psy.  The same as determining the type of help a child offender needs by his/her environment isn’t bad either.

Because it's religious indoctrination which violates the establishment clause and there is no evidence at all that NA works. I'l all for jail if a crime (that hurts others) has been committed but treatment should always be voluntary, and there should be an alternative to NA prisons.

Whether NA works or not, my point is why put a child thru it if he isn’t even addicted to drugs or even exposed to it at home.  Maybe the child is being abused by his father and doesn’t have a drug problem and so needs help in another area.  Treatment will never be voluntary until the child comes of age and can decide for themselves.  The authorities (parents, legal guardian etc.) need to define this for the kids.



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[Ursus]

This reminds me of the Violence Initiative. http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQZdUmxG1Es
They had a "Weed and Seed" program for intercity kids.
They weeded them all into Juvi and oops forgot to seed...........

Great talk by Peter Breggin! I watched the whole thing through. The "Weed and Seed" program is first mentioned in the third clip, I believe, though the other clips provided needed context:

• Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 1
• Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 2
• Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 3
• Peter Breggin, MD - The Violence Initiative - Part 4