AARC Summary (i.e. Ajax)

[TheWho]

So basically based on stats AARC releases, the program goes on to have a majority of its youth relapse? What a great program....

ya, the youth relapse, but they retain the parents. and their money. fabulous.

There are those who relapse like an other treatment center, but AARC has been able to reduce it to a very impressive level.  No rebates for people not willing to follow thru after they leave.

1.   Dr. Vauses education
Conclusion:  Dr. Vause continues to be active in the program and dedicated to a continuous life of learning and self improvement.  Acquiring his PhD from Union University, an accredited University that has been open since 1964 and works under the provisions of APA guidelines and ethics(American Psychological Association).

2.   AARC Outcome Study
Conclusion:  The outcome study of AARC was found to be conducted by an independent professional in the area of addiction.  To assist with the data collection and computation AARC had one of the Directors of Hazelden and their assistants  oversea and help author the study.  So the study is rock solid credible with some of it findings being:
85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years
93% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 12 months
52% of all graduates have had at least one relapse since graduating.

3.   Transparency:
AARC has shown it has opened its doors to independent studies and reveals its people qualifications openly.

[Anonymous]

There are those who relapse like an other treatment center, but AARC has been able to reduce it to a very impressive level.  No rebates for people not willing to follow thru after they leave.

Citation needed.

1.   Dr. Vauses education
Conclusion:  Dr. Vause continues to be active in the program

Wait, now we've had other AARColytes here saying he really doesn't have anything to do with the running of the program.

Acquiring his PhD from Union University, an accredited University that has been open since 1964 and works under the provisions of APA guidelines and ethics(American Psychological Association).

The "university" may be accredited now, but I don't believe it was at the time that Vause "attended".  Sure, it's been open since '64, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a diploma mill for quite a number of years, including those when Virgil Miller Newton (Vause's mentor) got his bogus 'degree' from them.

2.   AARC Outcome Study
Conclusion:  The outcome study of AARC was found to be conducted by an independent professional in the area of addiction.  To assist with the data collection and computation AARC had one of the Directors of Hazelden and their assistants  oversea and help author the study.  So the study is rock solid credible with some of it findings being:
85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years
93% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 12 months
52% of all graduates have had at least one relapse since graduating.

If it is so 'rock solid' then it shouldn't be difficult to provide a citation for the study.

3.   Transparency:
AARC has shown it has opened its doors to independent studies and reveals its people qualifications openly.

Bwahhahahhahaha!  Now that's just laughable.

[Froderik]

Pack it up and go home; this entire debate is moot.

It's a no-brainer: AARC is a Straight spin-off.

DANGER! DANGER! Will Robinson!  :bs:

[stina]

So basically based on stats AARC releases, the program goes on to have a majority of its youth relapse? What a great program....

ya, the youth relapse, but they retain the parents. and their money. fabulous.

There are those who relapse like an other treatment center, but AARC has been able to reduce it to a very impressive level.  No rebates for people not willing to follow thru after they leave.

1.   Dr. Vauses education
Conclusion:  Dr. Vause continues to be active in the program and dedicated to a continuous life of learning and self improvement.  Acquiring his PhD from Union University, an accredited University that has been open since 1964 and works under the provisions of APA guidelines and ethics(American Psychological Association).

2.   AARC Outcome Study
Conclusion:  The outcome study of AARC was found to be conducted by an independent professional in the area of addiction.  To assist with the data collection and computation AARC had one of the Directors of Hazelden and their assistants  oversea and help author the study.  So the study is rock solid credible with some of it findings being:
85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years
93% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 12 months
52% of all graduates have had at least one relapse since graduating.

3.   Transparency:
AARC has shown it has opened its doors to independent studies and reveals its people qualifications openly.

uh oh...here we go again with the guests and their independent and conveniently unattainable studies. hide your children. hide your animals too.

 :blabla:    :bs:

[Anonymous]

Hmmm "Hazelden" sounds familer
Oh ya! There were at KIDS Of North Jersey alot!
Thats how I know them!

Just something to think about....

[Anonymous]

How can you "still" be living a clean and sober life after four years if you have relapsed during that four years?  Is there an alternate meaning to the word "still"?

[Anonymous]

2.   AARC Outcome Study
Conclusion:  The outcome study of AARC was found to be conducted by an independent professional in the area of addiction.  To assist with the data collection and computation AARC had one of the Directors of Hazelden and their assistants  oversea and help author the study.  So the study is rock solid credible with some of it findings being:
85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years
93% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 12 months
52% of all graduates have had at least one relapse since graduating.

3.   Transparency:
AARC has shown it has opened its doors to independent studies and reveals its people qualifications openly.

How does a study of 85 out of 218 graduates demonstrate that 85% of all graduates are living a clean and sober life after 4 years?

How does a study that included only 14 graduates who had been graduated longer than 4 years demonstrate that 85% of all grads are living a clean and sober life after 4 years?

How does a study that indicated that only 48% of sampled graduates remained sober since graduation indicate that 85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years?

How does a study of 85 out of 218 graduates demonstrate that 52% of all graduates have had at least one relapse since graduating?

How does a study that questioned 85 graduates in one three month period with times subsequent to graduation ranging from 8 months to 5.5 years demonstrate that 93% of all graduates are still living clean and sober lives after 12 months?

What makes a study conducted by the Centre's Executive Director; the Clinical Director: a Board Member whose son is an employee of the Centre; a paid consultant of the Centre; and a faculty member of the Executive Director's alma mater; rock solid credible?

[TheWho]

Meatwad,  I can see that you are struggling trying to understand the results of the study.  The results are geared towards middle to highly educated adults.  Most college curriculums require a basic statistics course.
Check out this link for starters or ask a friend to explain it to you.

http://http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html

[Froderik]

"There are LIES,
There are DAMN LIES,
And there are STATISTICS."

[Anonymous]

Why don't you explain it to me Filet Mignon?  I just can't wrap my head around how one deduces that 85% of all graduates are still living clean and sober lives after four years, from a study that only included 14 people who had been graduated for four years, out of a total graduate population of 218.  I would be ever so grateful if you could fill me in on that.

[Anonymous]

Why don't you explain it to me Filet Mignon?  I just can't wrap my head around how one deduces that 85% of all graduates are still living clean and sober lives after four years, from a study that only included 14 people who had been graduated for four years, out of a total graduate population of 218. I would be ever so grateful if you could fill me in on that.

Nah.  It's much easier to accuse you of being ignorant in an attempt to draw everyone's attention away from the fact that he can't explain that^^^ away.  Typical spin tactics.

[TheWho]

Why don't you explain it to me Filet Mignon?  I just can't wrap my head around how one deduces that 85% of all graduates are still living clean and sober lives after four years, from a study that only included 14 people who had been graduated for four years, out of a total graduate population of 218.  I would be ever so grateful if you could fill me in on that.

Well, I’ll take a shot at this, …… people spend 4 years studying statistics to get a degree.  Explaining it to someone in a paragraph or two on fornits would be difficult at best.  But basically the statistician looks at the sample size (14), total population (218) and the degree of confidence they need to have.  This information is taken to sample tables and from these you can draw your conclusions, make predictions etc.
So the person would look up under total population range(200 – 225) and a sample size of 14.  Based on the results of the survey the tables would be able to predict that (for example purposes only) that:
We are 99% confident that 75 % of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years
We are 98% confident that 85% of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years
We are 95% confident that 89% of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years
We are 60% confident that 99% of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years  etc.

So depending on the confidence level you are willing to have or report on you can predict how many graduates will be clean and sober.  The tables are non linear so a very small movement in sample size or population could translate into a very large swing in results.  So the table allow for the added dimension of confidence level to compare results.  This is nice to have because it allows future studies to be compared more easily to track trends.

There are many ways to approach this also.  You can work backwards and choose the confidence level you want and have that predict (or drive)your sample size.  So if you want to be 99% confident in your results the table would tell you that you need to increase your sample size from 14 to 21 for example.  So it depends on how the research was structured from the beginning.
Hope this helps a little.  Another thing you can do is ask a friend who has taken a few stats courses in college.  Sometimes this helps to answer some of the more general questions.



...

[Anonymous]

Well, I’ll take a shot at this, ……

Oh god no!!!!!


Damn, too late.

This information is taken to sample tables and from these you can draw your conclusions, make predictions etc.


So the person would look up under total population range(200 – 225) and a sample size of 14.  Based on the results of the survey the tables would be able to predict that (for example purposes only) that:
We are 99% confident that 75 % of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years
We are 98% confident that 85% of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years
We are 95% confident that 89% of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years
We are 60% confident that 99% of the graduates are clean and sober after 4 years  etc.

So depending on the confidence level you are willing to have or report on you can predict how many graduates will be clean and sober.  

Hope this helps a little.

Nope.  Bullshit that's pulled directly out of your ass helps no one.

[Anonymous]

No, that answer didn't help me at all.  Since there is no indication of how many of the 14 clients graduated for over four years were still sober after four years, there was no figure from which you derived those probabilities.  The only figure indicating a probability of still being sober after 4 years was the 48% of the sample group reporting continuous sobriety.  Since 93.1% of those graduated one year or less, or 26 clients,  reported being sober for 12 months or more, that leaves only 12 clients, or 12%, who are still continuously sober since graduation.  That's only 12 out of 59 clients graduated for one year or more.  There is a very curious detail in the table.  Now those figures were derived from the table indicating the longest period of sobriety, which grouped grads with a time since of graduation of up to two years into the group "one year or less".  There are no figures that indicate total length of continuous sobriety since graduation, other than the 48% of the total sample of 100.  
The mean time since graduation for the sample was 2 years and 3 months.  Thus, probablities of grads still living a clean and sober life after 2 years and 3 months could be calculated.  

Here is an interesting statement from the study:
"If it was projected the 15 clients not available for interview were not abstinent, then the result for the entire population of 100 would result in an abstinent rate of 85% at the time of interview."
According to this, if all 15 non-respondent grads were not abstinent, 85%, or the entire 85 responding population, were abstinent.  Since only 48% of the sample reported being continuously sober, what is the significance of this?  

So back to my question.  Since the study used only 14 people graduated more than 4 years, from a sample of 100 grads with a mean time since graduation of 2 years 3 months, with a reported 48% rate of continuous sobriety, how does this show that 85% of all grads are living a clean and sober life 4 years after graduation?

[Froderik]

>YAWN<  :blabla:  ::poke::