Author Topic: Keep on Trukkin'  (Read 4605 times)

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Offline Anonymous

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2008, 06:51:02 PM »
AARC is not a school of any sort, so yoyu have absolutely no business using the word "graduate".
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline TheWho

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #46 on: August 04, 2008, 06:56:29 PM »
Quote from: "Reminder"
AARC is not a school of any sort, so yoyu have absolutely no business using the word "graduate".

"A School is an institution designed to allow and encourage students (or "pupils") to learn".

 This can be confusing but many people think the word "School" can only be used to refer to public or private educational institutes.  But there is Bible school, Karate school etc. any place inwhich something is taught.  So if they teach sobriety or any lessons at all then they can be refered to as a school.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline ajax13

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2008, 06:57:45 PM »
Quote from: "TheWho"
Quote from: "ajax13"
Even though the study was done in 2003, involving clients who graduated in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, they had all been graduated for five years in 2003.  My mistake.  Thanks for pointing that out.

The report never stated the sample population had been graduated for 5 years.  Their time after graduation ranged from 8 months to 5.5 years.  This study was a snapshot in time.  What I believe you were thinking is that they interviewed 100 people after they had been out of AARC for 5 years, which is not the case.  This study took 100 sequential graduates.



...

Twice in this forum you have presented Denis Herard's comment that the study showed that 85% of graduates were still sober after 5 years.  Again, this is a lie.  52% had relapsed, and most had not yet been out for five years, meaning that over time it was likely that more would relapse.  If 52% have relapsed, then 85% are not still sober after 5 years.

I don't need you to tell me what I am and am not thinking.  I'm not in AARC.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »
"AARC will go on serving youth and families as long as it will be needed, if it keeps open to God for inspiration" Dr. F. Dean Vause Executive Director


MR. NELSON: Mr. Speaker, AADAC has been involved with
assistance in developing the program of the Alberta Adolescent
Recovery Centre since its inception originally as Kids of the
Canadian West."
Alberta Hansard, March 24, 1992

Offline TheWho

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #48 on: August 04, 2008, 08:16:03 PM »
Quote from: "ajax13"
Twice in this forum you have presented Denis Herard's comment that the study showed that 85% of graduates were still sober after 5 years.  Again, this is a lie.  52% had relapsed, and most had not yet been out for five years, meaning that over time it was likely that more would relapse.  If 52% have relapsed, then 85% are not still sober after 5 years.

I don't need you to tell me what I am and am not thinking.  I'm not in AARC.


Ajax13, you are not understanding the study results.  The results ended up saying that 85% of graduates will still be sober 4 or more years (up to 5.5).  This applies not only to the 100 surveyed but also the entire population and future graduates.  Based on a small sample the study can gain a degree of confidence (typically 95% or better) that can predict future performance.  This is the strength of statistical models and sampling.

Take a look at table 2 and the time since graduation.  The study is not saying they the entire sample has been out for 5 years.  It is distributed over a period of 8 months to 5.5 years


Table 2 Longest period of continuous sobriety of interviewed graduates, maintained by time since graduation
Time since graduation   One month   Six months   Twelve months or more
One year or less (n=29)   0%   6.9%   93.1%
Two to three years (n=42)   2.49%   4.8%   92.9%
Four or more years (n=14)   0%   14.3%   85.7%


I realize it is a bit confusing to draw a conclusion on activities that have not occurred yet based on current data.  What may help is to speak with someone who is good at statistics or sample modeling.  I have a guy I speak with that is our local guru on statistics when I have a question, every company usually has a guy that at least dabbles a bit in stats and can help explain the tables and results to you.



...
« Last Edit: August 04, 2008, 08:26:03 PM by TheWho »

Offline Anonymous

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2008, 12:18:18 AM »
(Note: The following analysis assumes that the numbers weren't MADE UP OUT OF WHOLE CLOTH. This is, of course, amazingly common when dealing with all facets of the troubled teen industry.)

Well, judging from the cherry-picked sample sizes, we can judge two important facts:

1. Whatever dumbass wrote this report has absolutely no idea how to judge numbers. "One year or less" and "Two to three years" actually leaves a gap of a whole year. What, could they not find anyone who's been incarcerated there (again, not a school, so no graduates, any more than you'd graduate from jail) to support them?

2. The programming seems to wear off after about four years or so, judging by the large unaccounted-for sample in "Four years or more". Remember that programmies won't even acknowledge non-programmie viewpoints as valid. Do you expect them to actually put something accurate down when confronted with an ex-inmate who says "Fuck you, I'm drunk RIGHT NOW, so lick my nutsack"? Similarly, "Go blow a goat" and a hang-up is probably the most common answer.

Selection bias in action, folks!

Judging from that and the fact that the still partially controlled ex-inmates feel compelled to lie about their sobriety, we can estimate the actual sobriety rate at something on the order of 25%.

Aren't statistics wonderful?
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline Anonymous

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #50 on: August 05, 2008, 01:58:56 AM »
Quote from: "TheWho"
Ajax13, you are not understanding the study results.  The results ended up saying that 85% of graduates will still be sober 4 or more years (up to 5.5).  This applies not only to the 100 surveyed but also the entire population and future graduates.  Based on a small sample the study can gain a degree of confidence (typically 95% or better) that can predict future performance.  This is the strength of statistical models and sampling.

  • False evidence. Whenever possible, introduce new facts or clues designed and manufactured to conflict with opponent presentations as useful tools to neutralize sensitive issues or impede resolution.

Twenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth: The Rules of Disinformation

by H. Michael Sweeney
copyright © 1997 All rights reserved


Quote from: "TheWho"
I realize it is a bit confusing to draw a conclusion on activities that have not occurred yet based on current data.  What may help is to speak with someone who is good at statistics or sample modeling.  I have a guy I speak with that is our local guru on statistics when I have a question, every company usually has a guy that at least dabbles a bit in stats and can help explain the tables and results to you.
...

  • Play Dumb. No matter what evidence or logical argument is offered, avoid discussing issues with denial they have any credibility, make any sense, provide any proof, contain or make a point, have logic, or support a conclusion. Mix well for maximum effect.

    Example: "Nothing you say makes any sense. Your logic is idiotic. Your facts nonexistent. Better go back to the drawing board and try again."



Twenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth: The Rules of Disinformation

by H. Michael Sweeney
copyright © 1997 All rights reserved
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline TheWho

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #51 on: August 05, 2008, 08:39:21 AM »
Because we have questions or don’t understand something does not invalidate it.  For instance, if someone doesn’t understand how electricity is passed thru a wire and states “Electricity cant go thru a wire like that!!, why if it did we would all be electrocuted if we touched it, dumbass!!”, this doesn’t invalidate the existence of electricity or the fact that it passes thru a wire.  It is an opportunity for that person to learn something new.
It is good exercise to question the study because it is initiates understanding of it and promotes thinking.  I find it so hard to believe that many of you are not fascinated with the study and want to learn more instead of spending time trying to discredit people who have spent their entire lives dedicated to understanding in this area.

Quote from: "Anonymous Statistician"
Whatever dumbass wrote this report has absolutely no idea how to judge numbers. "One year or less" and "Two to three years" actually leaves a gap of a whole year.


I might be able to help here.  These statistical types like to keep the buckets (categories) as few and simple as possible as it makes the numbers easier to crunch and the results more accurate.
They could have said:
0-1   years
1-2 years
2-3 years
3-4 years
4-5 years
5-6 years
Which would have been 6 categories.  Instead they choose three categories
“One year or less”  may be defined (0 – 1.49 years)
Two to three years  may be defined (1.5 – 3.49 years)
Four or more years  may be defined (3.5 – 5.5 years)

This way you have reduced the categories by half.



Quote
2. The programming seems to wear off after about four years or so, judging by the large unaccounted-for sample in "Four years or more". Remember that programmies won't even acknowledge non-programmie viewpoints as valid. Do you expect them to actually put something accurate down when confronted with an ex-inmate who says "Fuck you, I'm drunk RIGHT NOW, so lick my nutsack"? Similarly, "Go blow a goat" and a hang-up is probably the most common answer.

Four years is a good length of time.  The critical phase, in my opinion, would be staying sober for the first year so that the person has past every holiday and encountered most of the triggers which may make him/her go back to using.  I would consider the program a success if a graduate was able to accomplish this first year on their own.  After a year it is pretty much up to the individual on whether they what to continue their success or not.  Even if the programing wears off after a year the individual will find themselves free of the physical and emotional addiction by that point.



...
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline ajax13

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #52 on: August 05, 2008, 10:21:45 AM »
Quote from: "Nonamouse"
Quote from: "Reminder"
AARC is not a school of any sort, so yoyu have absolutely no business using the word "graduate".

"A School is an institution designed to allow and encourage students (or "pupils") to learn".

 This can be confusing but many people think the word "School" can only be used to refer to public or private educational institutes.  But there is Bible school, Karate school etc. any place inwhich something is taught.  So if they teach sobriety or any lessons at all then they can be refered to as a school.

Brilliant.  Somebody teaches the employees at the bottle depot how to sort bottles.  Until just now, I never realized that the bottle depot is actually a school.  Fantastic!
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »
"AARC will go on serving youth and families as long as it will be needed, if it keeps open to God for inspiration" Dr. F. Dean Vause Executive Director


MR. NELSON: Mr. Speaker, AADAC has been involved with
assistance in developing the program of the Alberta Adolescent
Recovery Centre since its inception originally as Kids of the
Canadian West."
Alberta Hansard, March 24, 1992

Offline sicktomystomach

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #53 on: August 05, 2008, 01:23:38 PM »
Quote
Let me clear something up, people without the proper education should be exposed.

Wow... I hardly know where to start in responding in this thread.

Parent of a recent "graduate" here.

Regarding Vause's status as a "doctor" my son was surprised to hear that Vause is not/was not a MEDICAL DOCTOR. During his 11 months at AARC he was under the belief that Vause was not only a medical doctor, but also a psychologist possibly a psychiatrist and also his LEGAL GUARDIAN for the duration of his stay at AARC. He argued with me until I told him that a phone call to both the college of physicians and surgeons as well as the college of psychologists confirmed that he is not and never has been licensed in Alberta. A search done at the court house and a conversation with a family lawyer of 15 years confirmed that Vause is not and has never been his legal guardian either.

As far as AARC and regulations etc., what sets them apart from their peer programs to the south is that those programs were required to have a license and meet some sort of state standards etc. Here in Alberta and Canada, private facilities such as AARC are a "buyer beware" industry, completely unregulated. SO ... you can't lose a license you're not required to have in the first place.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline TheWho

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #54 on: August 05, 2008, 01:55:03 PM »
Quote from: "sicktomystomach"

Wow... I hardly know where to start in responding in this thread.

Parent of a recent "graduate" here.

Regarding Vause's status as a "doctor" my son was surprised to hear that Vause is not/was not a MEDICAL DOCTOR. During his 11 months at AARC he was under the belief that Vause was not only a medical doctor, but also a psychologist possibly a psychiatrist and also his LEGAL GUARDIAN for the duration of his stay at AARC. He argued with me until I told him that a phone call to both the college of physicians and surgeons as well as the college of psychologists confirmed that he is not and never has been licensed in Alberta. A search done at the court house and a conversation with a family lawyer of 15 years confirmed that Vause is not and has never been his legal guardian either.

My daughter was the same way.  She had a therapist who she called “Wendy” but after a few weeks she heard someone call her “Doctor Hammond”.  Since that time she always thought she was a medical doctor (someone who performed surgery).

What helped in her case was to explain that anyone who received a PhD in their field is considered a Doctor (Doctorate degree).  Some like to be called doctors other do not.  It is merely a label they can place upon themselves.  Have your son go onto Wikipedia and look up the term doctor and he will see it is a professional title.  That may help to calrify it for him.

Quote
As far as AARC and regulations etc., what sets them apart from their peer programs to the south is that those programs were required to have a license and meet some sort of state standards etc. Here in Alberta and Canada, private facilities such as AARC are a "buyer beware" industry, completely unregulated. SO ... you can't lose a license you're not required to have in the first place.

As far as licensing goes.  If it is not forced upon them then it is the communities fault.  If we were not forced to get a drivers licensed I don’t think there would be many of us that would volunteer to spend the time taking the test and paying the fee.  How many of us would take a half a day off of work to take the test if we didn’t have to?  But if we didn’t have a license that would mean we would be bad drivers would it?.



...
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline Anonymous

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #55 on: August 05, 2008, 02:16:47 PM »
Quote from: "TheWho"

My daughter was the same way.  She had a therapist who she called “Wendy” but after a few weeks she heard someone call her “Doctor Hammond”.  Since that time she always thought she was a medical doctor (someone who performed surgery).

What helped in her case was to explain that anyone who received a PhD in their field is considered a Doctor (Doctorate degree).  Some like to be called doctors other do not.  It is merely a label they can place upon themselves.  Have your son go onto Wikipedia and look up the term doctor and he will see it is a professional title.  That may help to calrify it for him.

Or maybe Vause could just stop trying to pass himself off as a "doctor"? 
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline TheWho

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #56 on: August 05, 2008, 03:03:56 PM »
Quote from: "Easier way"
Quote from: "TheWho"

My daughter was the same way.  She had a therapist who she called “Wendy” but after a few weeks she heard someone call her “Doctor Hammond”.  Since that time she always thought she was a medical doctor (someone who performed surgery).

What helped in her case was to explain that anyone who received a PhD in their field is considered a Doctor (Doctorate degree).  Some like to be called doctors other do not.  It is merely a label they can place upon themselves.  Have your son go onto Wikipedia and look up the term doctor and he will see it is a professional title.  That may help to calrify it for him.

Or maybe Vause could just stop trying to pass himself off as a "doctor"? 

Why?  Vause is a Doctor, he has a phd, that is the whole point!!  Check out wikipedia or a local dictionary



« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »

Offline Anonymous

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Re: Keep on Trukkin'
« Reply #57 on: August 05, 2008, 03:21:20 PM »
Quote from: "TheWho"
But if we didn’t have a license that would mean we would be bad drivers would it?.
...


That's some mush mouth gibberish, but I think I understand you.  You may not be a bad driver without a license but you would be an illegal driver. 
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Offline Anonymous

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Miller Lite?
« Reply #58 on: August 05, 2008, 03:25:18 PM »
Quote from: "Easier way"
Quote from: "TheWho"

My daughter was the same way.  She had a therapist who she called “Wendy” but after a few weeks she heard someone call her “Doctor Hammond”.  Since that time she always thought she was a medical doctor (someone who performed surgery).

What helped in her case was to explain that anyone who received a PhD in their field is considered a Doctor (Doctorate degree).  Some like to be called doctors other do not.  It is merely a label they can place upon themselves.  Have your son go onto Wikipedia and look up the term doctor and he will see it is a professional title.  That may help to calrify it for him.

Or maybe Vause could just stop trying to pass himself off as a "doctor"? 





That's a trick he learned from his mentor, "Dr." Virgil Miller "Fr. Cassian" Newton.  Newton used the title 'casue it made people, especially parents and media types, think he was a psychiatrist or at least qualified to make diagnoses of chemical dependency by looking into their kids eyes for evidence of marijuan or cocaine use.  This Vause guy is just as much a sack of shit as Newton is, which is not surprising in the least, considering that's where he learned his trade.
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Offline TheWho

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Re: Miller Lite?
« Reply #59 on: August 05, 2008, 03:41:41 PM »
Quote from: "Victim ofNewtonism"

That's a trick he learned from his mentor, "Dr." Virgil Miller "Fr. Cassian" Newton.  Newton used the title 'casue it made people, especially parents and media types, think he was a psychiatrist or at least qualified to make diagnoses of chemical dependency by looking into their kids eyes for evidence of marijuan or cocaine use.  This Vause guy is just as much a sack of shit as Newton is, which is not surprising in the least, considering that's where he learned his trade.

Oh no he uses voodoo!!?? 
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by Guest »