AARC Summary (i.e. Ajax)

[Anonymous]

TheWho is a fucking liar! Don't ever make the mistake of trusting this guy! He LIES, LIES, LIES!!!!

[TheWho]

Hey who. Ever heard of "GIGO". It means that if you feed bullshit in, you get bullshit out.  Another analogy would be to say that you can't make shit into gold.

I am very familiar with GIGO.  This was an old saying which was used when some of my people were sending me data via “Quattro Pro” and “Lotus 123” spread sheets which we managed to program using “Basic” (before visual basic) to collect and present data for quarterly and annual reporting in the manufacturing sector.  Way before your time, sure you never heard of it.

So who is verifying the purity of the input data here. I really don't care how you interpret it. I want to know how it was collected and whether the data is accurate. This means independently conducted studies and double blind control groups.

Trusting the data is a different discussion.  The person was having difficulty understanding the layout and presentation of the data, which it seems I have clarified to a larger extent.
I trust the Calculation, presentation and layout because I recognize the work and know that Hazelden has a good reputation in the field.  How the data was controlled and collected I do not have a handle on.  Was it made up?  Or Bogus?  Don’t know.

. I'd also like to see whether AARC's rate of "success" is any higher (or lower) than the spontaneous rate of recovery.

I don’t know the answer to that.  But I can tell you that the study results would tempt anyone to place a second mortgage on the barrel head for a chance to get a loved one clean and sober with a chance of 90% or better.  Hazelden cannot clam this and I consider them on the leading edge and are backed by some of the better minds in the Recovery industry.

 

So tell me, Who, and stop spinning around in circles: why exactly am I supposed to trust this data given by a biased party as impartial and accurate?

I don’t consider myself as one who spins, I understand that others see me this way and I don’t know why.  I cannot vouch for any of the data collection accuracy.  I don’t know how much the Hazelden folks were involved in this, whether they were handed a stack of paper with data on it or if the over saw the data collection themselves prior to crunching it.

Furthermore, as I stated above: "Who gives a flying fuck if it's "successful" or not!?!? Are their treatment methods humane and ethical? Do they deprive clients of their rights? So many questions like these are far, far, more relevant."

I have not read much here on AARC (I know you asked me to in the past, but I have been busy, so my knowledge is zilch on whether it is a safe place to be or not).  I understand it is a straight spin off of some type.  But I am not convinced this to be a total clone of the same ideals or practices based on this fact alone.  


@Zelma.... Sorry you feel that way.  I am just sharing my knowlege here.  I was not part of the study



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[psy]

Note to parents regarding the 90% sucess rate claim:  If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  Use your common sense.  If it walks, talks and sounds like a con...

@thewho:

If you haven't read up on AARC, admit you can't verify the accuracy of the data, and aren't sure about it's safety and practices, how can you in good conscience imply an endorsement*?  because that's what I read, and i'm quite sure that's how the parents see it.  Seems pretty reckless to me.  Maybe you should actually read something about a place even you might not be able to stomach endorsing.


*note that I consider any program endorsement to be reckless.

[Anonymous]

Sorry, Who, but 85.7% sober for 12 months or more simply is not 85% still sober 4 years after graduation.  You've danced and danced around that fact, but it won't change.  With 52% of the sample resuming the use of drugs and or alcohol after a mean time of 2 years 3 months since graduation, it is impossible for 85% to still be sober 4 years after graduation.  And of course, there is no one year milestone in the study, with or without a sample size of 29.  In the group of 29 referred to as "one year or less", 93.1% had experienced one year or more of continuous sobriety.  27 were sober for one year, but there is no indication that this one year commenced at the time of graduation.  Looking at table 1 we see that in fact only 10 grads in the study were graduated for one year or less, as a second category in this table includes those graduated for 13-24 months.  So milestones, medians etc. aside, there is no data in the study indicating length of continuous sobriety for any length of time after graduation.  It simply isn't in the study.  A rate of resumption of drug and or alchol use is in the study, this being 52%.  A mean time for the sample since graduation is also included in the study, 2 years 3 months.  As 52% are back drinking or taking drugs within an average of 2 years 3 months after graduation, it is impossible for 85% to still be living clean and sober lives 4 years after graduating.  While the data in the study does not disprove that 93% of graduates in the study were still living clean and sober lives 1 year after graduation, definitive data supporting this is not included.  If however, 93% are indeed still sober 1 year after graduation, then most AARC graduates are unwilling to to remain abstinent beyond one year.  An increase from 7% of clients resuming drug and alcohol use within 1 year after graduation to 52% resuming drug and alcohol use within an average of 2 years 3 months after graduation points to an abysmal failure on AARC's part to provide a long-term positive outcome.  In fact, in view of AARC's doctrine that embodies the notion that addiction is progressive and fatal, this high rate of self-destructive behavior on the part of AARC graduates is highly alarming.  It would indeed be interesting to know what percentage of AARC grads are still living clean and sober lives 4 years after graduation, but alas, this information was not included in the study.

[TheWho]

For Christ sake Ajax, everyone in the US and Canada knows AARC has a 93% success rate now.  We dont need to advertise it any further do we?

[Anonymous]

For Christ sake Ajax, everyone in the US and Canada knows AARC has a 93% success rate now.  We dont need to advertise it any further do we?

Citation needed.

AARC keeps saying it, but it doesn't make it true.

[Anonymous]

Note to parents regarding the 90% sucess rate claim:  If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  Use your common sense.  If it walks, talks and sounds like a con...

@thewho:

If you haven't read up on AARC, admit you can't verify the accuracy of the data, and aren't sure about it's safety and practices, how can you in good conscience imply an endorsement*?  because that's what I read, and i'm quite sure that's how the parents see it.  Seems pretty reckless to me.  Maybe you should actually read something about a place even you might not be able to stomach endorsing.


*note that I consider any program endorsement to be reckless.

Yep.  Notice he avoids the Aspen threads like the plague now.

[TheWho]

Meatwad, this is good.  It seems like you are starting to get your arms around all these stats, it can be daunting at times, I agree.  One of the challenges of reading these reports is trying to separate the findings of the study from individual interpretations.  What is typically suggested when the conversation gets bogged down with questions of what” was” or “was not” included in the study is to go back to the study itself and review the findings.  This avoids confusion and can get the readers back on track.

From AARC Study, lets take a look at Table again:

Table 2 Longest period of continuous sobriety of interviewed graduates, maintained by time since graduation
Time since graduation:….. One month …..Six months …..Twelve months or more
One year or less (n=29) …….0% .........…….6.9% .........…….93.1%
Two to three years (n=42) ..2.49% ..........4.8% .............92.9%
Four or more years (n=14) ...0% ............14.3% ............85.7%.


1.    So for those who finish the program at AARC the graduates can expect a 93.1% chance of staying clean and sober for the first year out.  

2.   After 4 years the graduates can expect an 85.7% probability that they will be living a clean and sober life.

3.   48% of the entire population stayed continuously clean and sober the whole time since graduation.



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[Anonymous]

Meatwad, this is good.  It seems like you are starting to get your arms around all these stats, it can be daunting at times, I agree.

Just stop with the verbal vomiting all over things and programs you know precisely DICK about.  Isn't it about time you got back to defending Aspen Ed instead?  Better yet, how 'bout your daughter come over and tell us HER version of events and how much she 'learned' at Aspen?  Somehow I have a feeling it might be just a tad different from your viewpoint.

[Anonymous]

The poster claimed that 85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years.  This is contradicted by the study, which showed that in fact 52% of grads in the sample were not still living a clean and sober life after an average of 2 years 3 months.  Here's where you are forced to break down, Who.  There is no information in the study showing how many of the sample were still sober 4 years after graduation.  The only figure related to length of sobriety at the 4 years from graduation mark indicates the number who have maintained a period of continuous sobriety of at least 12 months, 85.7%.  Nothing whatsoever about how many of the 14 grads out for over 4 years are still sober.  Based on data from the study, graduates can expect that at least a  52% chance that after 4 years they will resume drug and or alcohol use.  After 4 years grads can expect an 85.7% chance that they were sober continuously for over 12 months of that 4 years, or 25% of the time.  If in fact 93% of grads are still sober after 1 year, these grads can expect a 44% chance that they will resume drug and alcohol use in the ensuing 15 months after the one year milestone from graduation.  Thanks Who, for allowing us to watch a truly degenerate mind at work.  Forewarned is forearmed and all that.

[ajax13]

Summary:

Ajax was addressing 3 areas:
1.   Dr. Vauses education
Conclusion:  Dr. Vause continues to be active in the program and dedicated to a continuous life of learning and self improvement.  Acquiring his PhD from Union University, an accredited University that has been open since 1964 and works under the provisions of APA guidelines and ethics(American Psychological Association).

2.   AARC Outcome Study
Conclusion:  The outcome study of AARC was found to be conducted by an independent professional in the area of addiction.  To assist with the data collection and computation AARC had one of the Directors of Hazelden and their assistants  oversea and help author the study.  So the study is rock solid credible with some of it findings being:
85% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 4 years
93% of all graduates are still living a clean and sober life after 12 months
52% of all graduates have had at least one relapse since graduating.

3.   Transparency:
AARC has shown it has opened its doors to independent studies and reveals its people qualifications openly.

ajax or whoever you are, If there are issues which you do not understand then contact AARC directly.  You live in town so it is not a toll call.  If you continue to post false information under an assumed name then it will be understood that you are just out to harm AARC and/or their interests and the next communication will be taken off line from fornits.

Rock solid credible?  A strange mishmash of terms to describe a scientific study of a health care facility.  There's only one person so desperate to be heard that he would embarass himself like this.  Still at it, Joshy?
I assume that the next communication won't be by telephone.  My Special Lady Friend left several messages for Natalie Oldcomer, in an effort to acquire her records from AARC.  Never did get a call back.  So, I'm hoping that the next communication comes in the form of a singing telegam.  Do they send singing telegrams out to Langdon, Joshy?
Glad to see that you're able to gain access to AADAC's vast compilation of personal data on the citizens of Alberta.  Funny stuff.  
In a way, I admire your pluck.  You're willing to shit yourself in an effort to get attention, and you appear to have no qualms about doing it.

[TheWho]

When in doubt go back to the original study.  Lets break down table 2 again:

From AARC Study, lets take a look at Table again:

Table 2 Longest period of continuous sobriety of interviewed graduates, maintained by time since graduation

Time since graduation:….. One month …..Six months …..Twelve months or more
One year or less (n=29) …….0% .........…….6.9% .........…….93.1%
Two to three years (n=42) ..2.49% ..........4.8% .............92.9%
Four or more years (n=14) ...0% ............14.3% ............85.7%.

There were 29 graduates who were graduated for one year or less... if you take 93.1% of them that equals 27 graduates (27/29 = .93103)
There were 14 graduates who were graduated for 4 years or more.... if you take 85.7% of them that equals 12 graduates (12/14 = .857143)
There were 48 graduates who maintained a continuous sobriety since graduation.

So what does this tell us?

If you attend AARC you have a 93.1% chance of maintaining your sobriety for the first year.  

You have an 85.7% chance of living a clean and sober life after 4 years.  

You have a 48% chance of living a continuously sober life past 4 years.

The rest we can all speculate to one degree or another or draw "off tangent" conclusions but the above is what we do know.

If anyone has any questions I suggest you review the study and the tables provided in the study.   (I will add a link for everyone below.)

AARC Study Link

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[Froderik]

Natalie Oldcomer

That's her name, for real?

[Anonymous]

I am theWho and I am talking to myself.  ::poke::

[psy]

When in doubt go back to the original study.

You already admitted you couldn't verify the accuracy of the source data, so what exactly do the statistics mean?