Fornits
Treatment Abuse, Behavior Modification, Thought Reform => The Troubled Teen Industry => Topic started by: Anonymous on November 13, 2007, 01:01:02 AM
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Will the number of parents who take out second mortgages on their homes to fund the incarceration of their children drop?
A lot of these schools offer financing through private lenders who are surely securing their loans with second and third mortgages ... but things have dramatically changed in the home lending market and lots of folks are finding themselves close to losing their homes because of bad loans.
Just curious how this situation will effect the enrollment of kids in these programs given the current problem with parents being unable to refinance their homes which has been the preferred method. Where will they get the money?
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Programs existed before the real estate boom, and will exist long after. Don't worry, not everyone has a sub-prime loan with no income.
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It doesn't matter what they have left. Some parents will literally give everything they have to the cult.
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Recession could have a negatve effect on the industry but the US has a big population. So sadly there will likely be enough parents With the money to keep a few places alive
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How far of a step would it be for the programs to use the kids as collateral?
No, seriously. Don't have the usual high initial fee. Just make a contract that has the parent paying out the nose by the month, as usual, but the parent has to pay oh, say, twenty thousand dollars the day they take their kid OUT.
This way, when the parents run into economic problems, they find themselves paying for their kids' incarceration month-to-month because they can't afford to pull them.
You know, I really think I've given the programmies something to work with here...
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I won't waste time thinking about or commenting on this....
Oh wait, I just did...
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How far of a step would it be for the programs to use the kids as collateral?
No, seriously. Don't have the usual high initial fee. Just make a contract that has the parent paying out the nose by the month, as usual, but the parent has to pay oh, say, twenty thousand dollars the day they take their kid OUT.
This way, when the parents run into economic problems, they find themselves paying for their kids' incarceration month-to-month because they can't afford to pull them.
You know, I really think I've given the programmies something to work with here...
What program abused you so badly you lost all connection to reality? It must of been a really bad one, why don't you tell us all about it?
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Will the number of parents who take out second mortgages on their homes to fund the incarceration of their children drop?
A lot of these schools offer financing through private lenders who are surely securing their loans with second and third mortgages ... but things have dramatically changed in the home lending market and lots of folks are finding themselves close to losing their homes because of bad loans.
Just curious how this situation will effect the enrollment of kids in these programs given the current problem with parents being unable to refinance their homes which has been the preferred method. Where will they get the money?
When I was in my programs back in 86-90 I can tell you that 70% at least of the girls came from Southern California. After that came Northern California in at 20%. The last 10% were from random places.
Southern California's home prices haven't dropped that much, some areas not at all. So, I'm assuming most parents still have enough equity in there homes to be able to send their kids away. As far as qualifying for the loan, that's a whole different story. Northern California (Silicon Valley) has taken no hit whatsoever (besides not getting multiple offers). Now in the Sacramento Valley, we are seeing foreclosures all around us.
If you go to myspace, and look up all the different program groups now you'll find these kids were coming from all around the country in the last 10 years. What some of these mortgage companies did, (and all you program haters will love this) they had appraisers going out to these homes and appraising them for much more then what they were worth (the loan officers would tell them the number they needed it to come in at), so they could loan them the extra $40,000 to send their kid away. Putting these home owners/parents into Adjustable Rate Mortgages 2/28 (30 year loans 2 years fixed interest making the rate very low making it barely affordable), then after that, it would adjust pretty dramatically, usually 2% after that 2 year period was up! After that, every 6 months as much as 1%! Then usually there was something in there about a 3 year prepayment penalty, usually a very hefty amount, negotiable if they refinanced with that same company that screwed them the 1st time. But, unfortunately they have no more equity to make it work. So, now they have to except the rising interest rates. Or, just let the home be foreclosed upon thus screwing up their credit for 7 years. Then, the parents have the government on their ass because the money they took out, the government then taxes them on that. So, by the time the kids are out usually the home they left, is not the home they come back to. That's also why kids are getting pulled early from programs these days.
Basically, what I am trying to say is yes. There will be a dramatic drop in program enrollments. You won't see a lot of kids coming from the middle of the country anymore. Right now, there is probably a lot of parents that are extremely stressed about their financial positions they are currently in. That means either they deeply regret sending their kids, or they blame their kids for being such brats, and putting them into this financial situation?
I also think that is why you are seeing a lot more lawsuits these days too. I'm not talking about from the kids who were abused. I am talking about from the dissatisfied parents, and it gets so bad as to where the parents convince the kids to join them in the whole process of suing the programs.
You will see quite a few programs closing in the next year. I estimate at least 30%. I'm talking private schools. If I were an owner of a smaller school, I would be selling while I still showed a profit. But, the larger ones will remain because they have the money to stay afloat. But, they are no dummies, they are smart business men, and they too will downsize, and trim the extra fat.
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oh it's not going to matter. there's still lots and lots of rich people who could easily pay for the whole thing in cash. richer kids tend to be a little more screwed up (more money=more drugs) and much more likely to get sent away. dont give me shit for stereotyping because any kid thats been to one of the more expensive programs would probably agree with me. if you spend more time actually snorting coke rather than looking for ways to buy it, you'll be alot more fucked up quicker.
And not the whole country is experiencing real estate value drop....New York City has experienced an extreme increase in prices. to anyone currently living in manhattan anywhere below 125th st. except alphabet city, particuarlly living in areas like park avenue or madison in the 60's-80'st, sending their kids to a program should cost relatively nothing to them, and they might actually be saving money. the price of life there is very, very expensive - many private schools around here can cost up to 30 grand a semester. i'm in a half-ok half-ghetto neighborhood, and i pay $3500/mo in rent (no including bills and common charges) for 1050sqft 1bed/2bath. most programs would house your kid for much much less than that.
i'm not a pro-program troll....just exposing the situation the way a parent would percieve it.
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oh it's not going to matter. there's still lots and lots of rich people who could easily pay for the whole thing in cash. richer kids tend to be a little more screwed up (more money=more drugs) and much more likely to get sent away. dont give me shit for stereotyping because any kid thats been to one of the more expensive programs would probably agree with me. if you spend more time actually snorting coke rather than looking for ways to buy it, you'll be alot more fucked up quicker.
And not the whole country is experiencing real estate value drop....New York City has experienced an extreme increase in prices. to anyone currently living in manhattan anywhere below 125th st. except alphabet city, particuarlly living in areas like park avenue or madison in the 60's-80'st, sending their kids to a program should cost relatively nothing to them, and they might actually be saving money. the price of life there is very, very expensive - many private schools around here can cost up to 30 grand a semester. i'm in a half-ok half-ghetto neighborhood, and i pay $3500/mo in rent (no including bills and common charges) for 1050sqft 1bed/2bath. most programs would house your kid for much much less than that.
i'm not a pro-program troll....just exposing the situation the way a parent would percieve it.
There are some areas that are not being effected, you're right. But, the majority of the country is, and if you can't see that, then you are pretty retarded. You may not be a pro-program troll, but you obviously haven't taken the time to read up on what's going on with this whole mortgage crisis, and how it will, and has already begun to effect the "troubled teen industry" as a whole.
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oh i know....
what i mean is what middle america lacks, rich/urban america will make up for. as the middle and poor get poorer, the rich get richer.
from what i see - the culture, environment, etc. of the more afluent people around here, you're going to be seeing waves of city kids flooding the programs pretty soon. just so you have an idea of whats going on here, out of 89 kids who were in my little sister's graduating class, around 30 have serious hard drug habits, about 15 of those have turned into harded criminals already, and out of the remaining 59 kids, 20 didnt make it past their freshmen year in college - and This is a college prep school, with a $19,000/semester tuituion. The $20-35 grams of nearly pure coke that NYC started to see as soon as bush got elected has had a tremendous negative effect on the affluent culture of the city. it's like 1977 all over again for the rich kids.
but there will be a change in the industry, i agree. the programs which are already moderately successfull and cater to the wealthy (e.g HLA, whatever school paris hilton went to..), will see a tremendous boost in bussiness in the next few years given that their reputation isnt soiled by all the lawsuits, and they keep their ethics and finaces straight. while the low-end programs like the WWASPS schools, low-end wildernesses, bootcamps, and small rehabs will probably be the goners in this situation.
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oh i know....
what i mean is what middle america lacks, rich/urban america will make up for. as the middle and poor get poorer, the rich get richer.
from what i see - the culture, environment, etc. of the more afluent people around here, you're going to be seeing waves of city kids flooding the programs pretty soon. just so you have an idea of whats going on here, out of 89 kids who were in my little sister's graduating class, around 30 have serious hard drug habits, about 15 of those have turned into harded criminals already, and out of the remaining 59 kids, 20 didnt make it past their freshmen year in college - and This is a college prep school, with a $19,000/semester tuituion. The $20-35 grams of nearly pure coke that NYC started to see as soon as bush got elected has had a tremendous negative effect on the affluent culture of the city. it's like 1977 all over again for the rich kids.
but there will be a change in the industry, i agree. the programs which are already moderately successfull and cater to the wealthy (e.g HLA, whatever school paris hilton went to..), will see a tremendous boost in bussiness in the next few years given that their reputation isnt soiled by all the lawsuits, and they keep their ethics and finaces straight. while the low-end programs like the WWASPS schools, low-end wildernesses, bootcamps, and small rehabs will probably be the goners in this situation.
Okay, let us try this again. If the middle and the poor folks(which make up the majority of the population) are getting poorer, and poorer. And the richer, are getting richer and richer. That equals a smaller percentage of the population, having the majority of the money. Thus having less kids to send away. Does that make sense?
Also, if WWASPS is smart they will close some schools. Keep maybe 5 open? Making 3 still affordable (lower-end) then greatly improving 2 of their programs to compete with the higher end programs in this country.
Then when this whole mortgage mess straightens itself out they can always exercise their options by opening those programs back up that they have closed (under different names of course). That's what I would do if I were them.
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you still dont see my point. as the rich get richer, so do the numbers of their kids who get sent away. 10 years ago NYC private schools were graduating kids who across the board, did well..they went to college, got jobs and families, etc. that was the norm back then. now, the norm seems to be to have half the kids in any given high-end school end up screwing their lives up. even the ones who dont mess with the hard drugs end up in serious shit right around the time they turn 21. Generation Y of the upper class experiences a quarter life crisis unlike anything you have seen before. the combination of their spoilage from too much money and opprotunities, and the pressure to equal or surpass the parent's income, and the increasingly competitive nature of the current job market, Gen Y kids are dropping like flies.
so, instead of seeing only one or two kids in an entire school get sent away, now NYC private schools are having up to half of their potential graduating class get reffered to "theraputic" programs by the middle of 10th grade. personally, i know of 8 kids who attended the same TBS as me, and who went to the same high school as me, and they were within 2 years of age difference. none of these kid's families knew each other, or had the same ed consultants, nor were they reffered to the same school by the originating school - it's by pure coincidence that we all ended up in the same place. around 20% of the kids in what would have been the graduating class of that school got sent to either a wilderness or a TBS, and a few to lockdowns. i am not streching things or being sarcastic. i'm hearing about more and more kids get sent away every day, and none of their parents ever have any trouble affording theraputic programs.
but the dent that the GAO and futher govt investigations are going to make is going to be much bigger than anything the realestate market can do right now. i dont see why you have your panties in a bunch about this because there are other, much worse things you as an industry employee have to worry about right now.
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you still dont see my point. as the rich get richer, so do the numbers of their kids who get sent away. 10 years ago NYC private schools were graduating kids who across the board, did well..they went to college, got jobs and families, etc. that was the norm back then. now, the norm seems to be to have half the kids in any given high-end school end up screwing their lives up. even the ones who dont mess with the hard drugs end up in serious shit right around the time they turn 21. Generation Y of the upper class experiences a quarter life crisis unlike anything you have seen before. the combination of their spoilage from too much money and opprotunities, and the pressure to equal or surpass the parent's income, and the increasingly competitive nature of the current job market, Gen Y kids are dropping like flies.
so, instead of seeing only one or two kids in an entire school get sent away, now NYC private schools are having up to half of their potential graduating class get reffered to "theraputic" programs by the middle of 10th grade. personally, i know of 8 kids who attended the same TBS as me, and who went to the same high school as me, and they were within 2 years of age difference. none of these kid's families knew each other, or had the same ed consultants, nor were they reffered to the same school by the originating school - it's by pure coincidence that we all ended up in the same place. around 20% of the kids in what would have been the graduating class of that school got sent to either a wilderness or a TBS, and a few to lockdowns. i am not streching things or being sarcastic. i'm hearing about more and more kids get sent away every day, and none of their parents ever have any trouble affording theraputic programs.
but the dent that the GAO and futher govt investigations are going to make is going to be much bigger than anything the realestate market can do right now. i dont see why you have your panties in a bunch about this because there are other, much worse things you as an industry employee have to worry about right now.
I just don't think I can make it any more crystal clear for you. I am already explaining it to you, as I would a 5 year old! There is not going to ever be a majority of the population that is going to be wealthy! I understand that a higher percentage of kids from wealthy families may be getting sent away for treatment, and to programs. But, what you can't seem to get through that head of yours, is that's not even ever going to come close to the numbers as far as the kids go, or the amount of dollars that have been generated from the middle to lower class families of America that have sent their kids away to these facilities.
My panties are not in a bunch, I just don't understand why you can't get something my own dogs seem to comprehend? BTW, which industry do you think I am involved with? Please, you don't know me!
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oh it's not going to matter. there's still lots and lots of rich people who could easily pay for the whole thing in cash. richer kids tend to be a little more screwed up (more money=more drugs) and much more likely to get sent away. dont give me shit for stereotyping because any kid thats been to one of the more expensive programs would probably agree with me. if you spend more time actually snorting coke rather than looking for ways to buy it, you'll be alot more fucked up quicker.
And not the whole country is experiencing real estate value drop....New York City has experienced an extreme increase in prices. to anyone currently living in manhattan anywhere below 125th st. except alphabet city, particuarlly living in areas like park avenue or madison in the 60's-80'st, sending their kids to a program should cost relatively nothing to them, and they might actually be saving money. the price of life there is very, very expensive - many private schools around here can cost up to 30 grand a semester. i'm in a half-ok half-ghetto neighborhood, and i pay $3500/mo in rent (no including bills and common charges) for 1050sqft 1bed/2bath. most programs would house your kid for much much less than that.
i'm not a pro-program troll....just exposing the situation the way a parent would percieve it.
If you don't mind telling me, what program were you in? You seem to have a good grasp of the situation, and something about how you write makes me think we've had a very similar past...more so than usual
But let me say, I don’t think rich kids are more fucked up than anyone else. I think their parents have more intensely unrealistic expectations…Though, there’s something to be said about how extremes* in either poverty or wealth create higher risk environments…but it’s not that the kids can get drugs easier
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If you don't mind telling me, what program were you in? You seem to have a good grasp of the situation, and something about how you write makes me think we've had a very similar past...more so than usual
what is it about how i write that makes you think we have a simmilar past? would you know my writing style from being my freind or my counselor? i post as annon for a reason. unless you give me a hint as to who you are, something only the person you think i am would know, i'm not revealing anything.
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If you don't mind telling me, what program were you in? You seem to have a good grasp of the situation, and something about how you write makes me think we've had a very similar past...more so than usual
what is it about how i write that makes you think we have a simmilar past? unless you give me a hint as to who you are, something only the person you think i am would know, i'm not revealing anything.
I'm you. I'm you from the future
I've come from the future... back in time to warn you...
Just kidding. But wouldn't that be funny, like, if i come up with some real personal shit now, to back that up? I'm totally gonna do that if i see a kid i think i know, and this situation comes up again.
Ok, don't tell me, it doesn't matter. I don't know who you are. I'm just jumping to conclusions based on a style of outlook, that's probably very common, that we've had similar pasts, in terms of program, area of birth, I also lived right near you very recently, if you mean you live in the columbia uni area, so there you go...
But what's hilarious, on a different note, is that every person thinks every other person is a spy, right? Like someone just thought that about you..alot of unintentional comedy
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CCM girl wrote:
"...so they could loan them the extra $40,000 to send their kid away."
Well, the good news for teens is that 40 grand doesn't buy shit in programs these days -- 3 or 4 months tops at the programs that are being sold to parents as supposedly 'good' programs -- the ones that claim to be different from all those other ones where kids have been abused or killed.
Guest wrote:
"...the low-end programs like the WWASPS schools, low-end wildernesses, bootcamps, and small rehabs will probably be the goners in this situation."
I'm afraid it might be the opposite. Like they taught us in econ class, an economic downturn can actually increase demand for certain things -- cheap substitutes for things someone wants but can no longer afford. WWASPS programs have always been at the low end of the spectrum -- maybe they're still only 6 or 7 grand a month.
Not exactly a middle class price range in my view, but still affordable enough where someone who can get a $40 grand 2nd or 3rd mortgage could ship his kid off for 6 months of pepper spray-induced attitude adjustment and soul-crushing isolation therapy.
I don't disagree that the rich keep getting richer, but do they also keep getting dumber?
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Holy fucking shit, can have you pay me $10,000 a month to do whatever I want to your teenage daughter?
Jesus, no fucking wonder everyone wants to open one of these things.
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Holy fucking shit, can have you pay me $10,000 a month to do whatever I want to your teenage daughter?
Jesus, no fucking wonder everyone wants to open one of these things.
I'll bet Joseph W. Gauld would have something good to say about this.
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I'm you. I'm you from the future
I've come from the future... back in time to warn you...
Just kidding. But wouldn't that be funny, like, if i come up with some real personal shit now, to back that up? I'm totally gonna do that if i see a kid i think i know, and this situation comes up again.
Ok, don't tell me, it doesn't matter. I don't know who you are. I'm just jumping to conclusions based on a style of outlook, that's probably very common, that we've had similar pasts, in terms of program, area of birth, I also lived right near you very recently, if you mean you live in the columbia uni area, so there you go...
But what's hilarious, on a different note, is that every person thinks every other person is a spy, right? Like someone just thought that about you..alot of unintentional comedy
oh ok. i'm just carefull because i've been one of the voices in a very small crowd which has put my program through hell this past year. i kinda sorta live near where your talking about...a little more downtown. and my program was in north georgia....but i'll tell you that the private schools that i was referencing were dwight, calhoun, trevor day, and especialy york prep. would that be a simmilar past?
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oh i know....
what i mean is what middle america lacks, rich/urban america will make up for. as the middle and poor get poorer, the rich get richer.
from what i see - the culture, environment, etc. of the more afluent people around here, you're going to be seeing waves of city kids flooding the programs pretty soon. just so you have an idea of whats going on here, out of 89 kids who were in my little sister's graduating class, around 30 have serious hard drug habits, about 15 of those have turned into harded criminals already, and out of the remaining 59 kids, 20 didnt make it past their freshmen year in college - and This is a college prep school, with a $19,000/semester tuituion. The $20-35 grams of nearly pure coke that NYC started to see as soon as bush got elected has had a tremendous negative effect on the affluent culture of the city. it's like 1977 all over again for the rich kids.
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That view is not reflected in professional statistics. People from higher socio-economic backgrounds are comparatively least likely to be in the criminal system, and they are not disproportionately represented to their total number either, as well.
About market downturns....where there is a price increase and corresponding decrease of funds, you'll always have a decrease of buyers, even for programs. But, a downturn will affect programs less than any other industry.
Programs can re-price their services as low as they need to because, as we all know, they don’t actually provide any services. You still make huge amounts of cash charging 4,000 per month for nothing, even if it’s not as much as 10,0000 a month for nothing
Also, as program parents think of program as a necessity..like chemotherapy, it will be the last thing they abandon to save money.
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Holy fucking shit, can have you pay me $10,000 a month to do whatever I want to your teenage daughter?
Jesus, no fucking wonder everyone wants to open one of these things.
Yeah, not only do they rake in those huge fees, but expenses seem to be pretty low. The food is cheap, low-quality crap and the staffers don't get paid much -- of course, they don't need many qualifications either -- a GED or sometimes not even that. Maybe it's the fringe benefits that make young adults want to work at these places -- benefits like "do whatever I want to your teenage daughter."
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I'm you. I'm you from the future
I've come from the future... back in time to warn you...
Just kidding. But wouldn't that be funny, like, if i come up with some real personal shit now, to back that up? I'm totally gonna do that if i see a kid i think i know, and this situation comes up again.
Ok, don't tell me, it doesn't matter. I don't know who you are. I'm just jumping to conclusions based on a style of outlook, that's probably very common, that we've had similar pasts, in terms of program, area of birth, I also lived right near you very recently, if you mean you live in the columbia uni area, so there you go...
But what's hilarious, on a different note, is that every person thinks every other person is a spy, right? Like someone just thought that about you..alot of unintentional comedy
oh ok. i'm just carefull because i've been one of the voices in a very small crowd which has put my program through hell this past year. i kinda sorta live near where your talking about...a little more downtown. and my program was in north georgia....but i'll tell you that the private schools that i was referencing were dwight, calhoun, trevor day, and especialy york prep. would that be a simmilar past?
yes, but more jewishy. Riverdale, Horace Mann and Hackley. :) Sad, though...such bright beginnings....
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Holy fucking shit, can have you pay me $10,000 a month to do whatever I want to your teenage daughter?
Jesus, no fucking wonder everyone wants to open one of these things.
Yeah, not only do they rake in those huge fees, but expenses seem to be pretty low. The food is cheap, low-quality crap and the staffers don't get paid much -- of course, they don't need many qualifications either -- a GED or sometimes not even that. Maybe it's the fringe benefits that make young adults want to work at these places -- benefits like "do whatever I want to your teenage daughter."
Based on my Whitman sampler program familiarity, I think the magnetism for a lot of staff, is perversely, to help kids. The staff are always an uneducated, really screwed by life genus of people. I sense they’re chosen specifically for how vulnerable mentally they are. The more defenseless, the easier they are to control, the less of a disclosure threat. These people are easily absorbed into the cult, and spat back out when they become inconvenient. Some, are just screwed by life sort of people, looking to screw others, not sexually, emotionally. In my experience, the only “humanâ€
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yes, but more jewishy. Riverdale, Horace Mann and Hackley. :) Sad, though...such bright beginnings....
haha yeah... i went to Rodeph in the early days. i went secular after they tried to extort a "donation" from my parents. i dont know much about the jewish high schools though, is coke use and wiggery as prevalent there as you'd expect to see in secular schools? i know theres lots of kids that smoke weed...but thats never a serious issue. yeah, such bright beginings. what was it that corrupted you? for me it was just the whole sex drugs and rocknroll fantasy coupled with social rejection and depression.