General Interest > Tacitus' Realm
IBM's new foretelling software to be used by Florida DOC
Ursus:
--- Quote from: "Whooter" ---
--- Quote from: "wdtony" ---Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
--- End quote ---
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
--- End quote ---
Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more. In fact, in all likelihood, a good case worker who cares, will pick up more than a mere $12 billion computer program could ever predict or recommend. This happens during time spent with the kid, which does cost more than 0.4¢, I'm afraid.
In fact, it is precisely that time spent, that human to human interaction, which has the most potential for good, simply by the fact that it is human to human.
Not everyone is the same, not everyone's behavior can be so patly predicted, not everyone responds to the dynamics of the particular programs they are funneled to in equal fashion. Some programs, conceivably predicted based on previous behaviors and history, may even be an anathema to certain individuals due simply to their social and/or spatial needs. A good case worker is more likely to weigh in such factors, especially when combined with communication with the individual in question.
The fact is, it doesn't take really complicated software to make the jobs of the plebes on the front line easier. Too much software, on the other hand, can potentially take away from the human element which is, when you get right down to it, the main part of the job.
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
Whooter:
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more.
--- End quote ---
This could be. But how many good case workers do we have? What about the kid who ends up with a bad case worker? Or one having a bad day? I would rather get good consistent results.
--- Quote ---The fact is, it doesn't take really complicated software to make the jobs of the plebes on the front line easier. Too much software, on the other hand, can potentially take away from the human element which is, when you get right down to it, the main part of the job.
--- End quote ---
I agree that they could do the same job (not as consistently or as quick). The same way GM could get rid of all the computers and have all the cars made by hand. The quality would drop off and the prices would rise considerably. But it could be done.
--- Quote ---In fact, in all likelihood, a good case worker who cares, will pick up more than a mere $12 billion computer program could ever predict or recommend. This happens during time spent with the kid, which does cost more than 0.4¢, I'm afraid.
--- End quote ---
I am not sure how you can conclude this. The case workers will still be involved, Ursus, they will just have the added assistance of a program to help place the child on the right path. If they pick something up that isn’t in the computer then it would be added. That way it would be there for the next child and the next caseworker would benefit as would the child.
I used a billing rate of $100/hour. So the caseworker would cost thousands of dollars versus a few cents for the computer assessment.. The idea is to reduce the time the caseworker has to spend figure out what is the best route for this child to take.
--- Quote ---In fact, it is precisely that time spent, that human to human interaction, which has the most potential for good, simply by the fact that it is human to human.
--- End quote ---
This I can agree with. The child isn’t going to be rehabilitated by the computer, Ursus. The computer is just going to recommend the best rehab direction to take. If anything human contact may be increased.
--- Quote ---But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, then it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
--- End quote ---
Why do you get so mad every time someone receives a paycheck for their hard work? Do you work for free? Do you expect everyone to just give away what they have and not expect compensation? Your argument does not make any sense. If the software package doesn’t hold any value then the word will get out very quickly and IBM will not be able to sell another package. If these kids get placed on a better track and the state can reduce the number of adults in prison by helping the teens then the investment will pay off and everyone wins.
How could this possibly be harmful for the child or the State?
...
Ursus:
--- Quote from: "Whooter" ---
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more.
--- End quote ---
This could be. But how many good case workers do we have? What about the kid who ends up with a bad case worker? Or one having a bad day? I would rather get good consistent results.
--- End quote ---
Try training those case workers better. Try paying those case workers more. Try not saddling them with 50% higher caseloads than is specified in their job description. Try appreciating them more where it counts. Try doing something about a toxic work environment where burn-out runs rampant and cynicism sets in quickly. How about Florida invests in its people and not some computer program that is unlikely to make an appreciable difference in the long run anyway.
--- Quote from: "Whooter" ---
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
--- End quote ---
Why do you get so mad every time someone receives a paycheck for their hard work? Do you work for free? Do you expect everyone to just give away what they have and not expect compensation? Your argument does not make any sense. If the software package doesn’t hold any value then the word will get out very quickly and IBM will not be able to sell another package. If these kids get placed on a better track and the state can reduce the number of adults in prison by helping the teens then the investment will pay off and everyone wins.
How could this possibly be harmful for the child or the State?
--- End quote ---
You truly can be diabolical sometimes. Where in hell's name did you come up with that conclusion? Classic Whooter twisting of a post to a completely different meaning.
Florida investing in its working people entails giving them a paycheck, and more, of course. How on earth you could twist that to mean the opposite is simply beyond my comprehension.
Makes me wonder just how much of a paycheck you get to do your dirty business here. :D
DannyB II:
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---
--- Quote from: "Whooter" ---
--- Quote from: "wdtony" ---Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
--- End quote ---
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
--- End quote ---
Geeezzz... Even presuming that the ramifications of this program is as innocuous as you imply (which I don't buy, btw), there's nothing in your hypothetical example, Whooter, that a good case worker wouldn't pick up whilst taking a history, if not more. In fact, in all likelihood, a good case worker who cares, will pick up more than a mere $12 billion computer program could ever predict or recommend. This happens during time spent with the kid, which does cost more than 0.4¢, I'm afraid.
In fact, it is precisely that time spent, that human to human interaction, which has the most potential for good, simply by the fact that it is human to human.
Not everyone is the same, not everyone's behavior can be so patly predicted, not everyone responds to the dynamics of the particular programs they are funneled to in equal fashion. Some programs, conceivably predicted based on previous behaviors and history, may even be an anathema to certain individuals due simply to their social and/or spatial needs. A good case worker is more likely to weigh in such factors, especially when combined with communication with the individual in question.
The fact is, it doesn't take really complicated software to make the jobs of the plebes on the front line easier. Too much software, on the other hand, can potentially take away from the human element which is, when you get right down to it, the main part of the job.
But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Seems to me this is merely the latest installment in a long line of debacles in the history of this state's decisions regarding delivery of their social services.
--- End quote ---
:shamrock: :shamrock:
Ursus, This is what I mean along with many others pull the plug on this post it is over, there are 80,000 kids just in Florida not including the rest of America. Case workers, one on one talks, fireside chats, maybe down to the creek to fish "Big Brother".
Not trying to insult but lets just move on we obviously don't get this one.
Everything in America fattens somebodies wallet you work for someone or yourself your somehow fattening your wallet off of something or somebody.
Danny
Whooter:
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---You truly can be diabolical sometimes. Where in hell's name did you come up with that conclusion? Classic Whooter twisting of a post to a completely different meaning.
--- End quote ---
Right here:
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---But... Florida would rather invest millions into the use of some software package, a business deal fattening certain corporations' coffers and certain individuals' wallets, than it would invest in its own working people. Florida investing in its working people entails giving them a paycheck, and more, of course. How on earth you could twist that to mean the opposite is simply beyond my comprehension.
--- End quote ---
This creates jobs, gets people off of welfare, opens up entry level positions as well as White collar employment. People who are employed pay taxes which helps to fuel government fiscal recovery.... etc.
--- Quote ---Makes me wonder just how much of a paycheck you get to do your dirty business here.
--- End quote ---
It would be nice to get paid for doing this. Do you get paid for writing on fornits?
--- Quote --- Try training those case workers better. Try paying those case workers more. Try not saddling them with 50% higher caseloads than is specified in their job description. Try appreciating them more where it counts. Try doing something about a toxic work environment where burn-out runs rampant and cynicism sets in quickly. How about Florida invests in its people and not some computer program that is unlikely to make an appreciable difference in the long run anyway.
--- End quote ---
How do you know it is unlikely to make a difference? Here is an interesting article on your state workers which may make a few people rethink the value of the software:
Article
During the past two years, more than 70 Florida child-welfare workers have been caught falsifying records -- lying about their on-the-job efforts to protect children, according to state and county records reviewed by the Orlando Sentinel.
As a consequence, the Florida Department of Children and Families temporarily lost track of at least six children, sometimes for months. Fourteen children were left in unsafe homes, the Sentinel found in a review of agency records.
Despite passage of a state law intended to punish cheaters, dishonest caseworkers remain a persistent problem in Florida's system to protect at-risk children:
•The day after a caseworker reported that she had inspected a foster home in Wildwood, police found its four foster children living in tents in the yard. The house had no running water, no food and no clean clothes.
•After a Hardee County social worker lied about making home visits, one child wound up living with an uncle awaiting trial on child-rape charges.
•Two children in Hernando County lived, for a time, with a grandfather who had been arrested two years earlier and accused of physically abusing his own child.
...
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