General Interest > Tacitus' Realm
IBM's new foretelling software to be used by Florida DOC
wdtony:
--- Quote from: "Whooter" ---
--- Quote from: "wdtony" ---Case worker: "This kid doesn't need to be locked up, marijuana use doesn't necessarily equal an addiction", Family counseling.......next!
--- End quote ---
Or maybe:”This child has been involved in a gang over on oak street. The Oak street gang is known for forcing members to rape a random member of the neighborhood before they become full members. He is twelve years old and has only been in the gang for six months. He was involved in 2 robberies of local stores and was witness to 1 assault of an older woman and witnessed the murder of another gang member. He admits to smoking marijuana. His father is currently in jail for assault and battery and his mother suffers from depressions as does his grandmother and 1 older sister who is presently prostituting herself. Adults in the household are rarely home. The boy dropped out of school recently and has been tested by the school system to have an above average IQ and is interested in restoring older cars.
The boy was picked up and charged with aggravated assault on another minor and being involved in a robber with an automatic weapon although this boy was not carrying.
Caseworker 1: Not much we can do, toss him in with the others.
Caseworker 2: Hey he says he has an older sister who might take him. Lets release him to his sister and save the state some money. Its only the kids first offense.
Caseworker 3: Family therapy! If the family doesn’t show we will toss him in with the others and let him thru drug awareness training.
(total assessment time = 42 man hours = $4,200)
Predicting software would take into account many risk factors…
1. like 90% of kids who run with gangs for more than a year will always go back after incarceration.
2. If the child is moved to live with a relative and the relative lives less than a mile away from the child previous home then the move is found to be ineffective in 70% of the cases.
3. Family therapy fails to be effective if the child comes from a home with one parent and the one parent is suffering from depression and is not engaged in the childs life more than 60 % of the time.
4. Children with above average IQ tend to not do very well in juvy halls and tend to get worse.
5. Child offenders under the age of 15 who have committed their first crime and run with a gang have only a 20% success rate of breaking lose from gang life if they are not separated from them within a year.
There would be thousands of statistics that would be used to predict this childs chances of becoming successful and living a happy life (or just not reentering the prison system as an adult).
Possible conclusion:
Since this boys family is not engaged then family counseling would fail. It turns out that this boys' Uncle (who runs a body shop) lives 30 miles away and living apart from a depressed mother and sister, separating him from his new friends would give him the best chance in life. Although we always advocate keeping the family together, the computer models indicates the best direction is to remove him from his immediate family, place him with his uncle who is willing to take him and he will not be required to serve any time in juvy hall or attend drug awareness training.
Notify authorities to perform a follow-up after six months to see how the boy is doing and send a letter to the local school systems to help with the boys transition into his new school (if authorized).
(total assessment time = .00004 man hours = $.004 cents)
...
--- End quote ---
Now this is one elaborate hypothetical (:
Froderik:
Wow this really has gone on long enough..don't you all think.
I can't even bring myself to read the last two posts..
The idea of "foretelling software" is repulsive to me, as is anyone who would entertain an idea like this for more than a nanosecond.
Sometimes it's good to let threads like this one die; it hardly seems worth the effort...I'm sure there is more important news to talk about..
Whooter:
--- Quote from: "Froderik" ---Wow this really has gone on long enough..don't you all think.
I can't even bring myself to read the last two posts..
The idea of "foretelling software" is repulsive to me, as is anyone who would entertain an idea like this for more than a nanosecond.
Sometimes it's good to let threads like this one die; it hardly seems worth the effort...I'm sure there is more important news to talk about..
--- End quote ---
The "I just" thread has been going for a long time now. There is tons of reading and maybe that would be more interesting for you. I notice the posts are much shorter and there is very little disagreement and the topic doesnt vary too much.
...
DannyB II:
--- Quote from: "Ursus" ---
--- Quote from: "DannyB II" ---Yes there will be profiling, this is common practice in determining what criminals will do next. It helps keep your neighborhoods safe and keep these derelicts off the streets, while at the same time trying to get them help.
--- End quote ---
Uh . . . "derelicts?" Sounds like you have a certain amount of prejudgment as to the character of those in question here, eh?
Moreover, can you offer proof that profiling has had an actual long term effect on crime?
--- End quote ---
:shamrock: :shamrock:
Ursus I don't know if I was referring to the overall effect profiling has on squashing crime, I was saying they (cops/detectives) use profiling as part of there assessment of crime. Though I do have 2 brothers that are in law enforcement and part of my opinion came from them, all this talk about profiling has gotten way off track so where any profiling of any sort is bad.
I am sorry if you are offended with the word derelict, I guess you have never been arrested and incarcerated, it is then the word derelict is used, at least they used this word when referring to me.
The prejudgment comes from the article posted that says they are thinking of using IBM system to profile known criminals, did I miss something or are you just off on one of your crusades again.
Danny
DannyB II:
--- Quote from: "Froderik" ---Sometimes it's amazing how people don't give a shit about liberty.
The whole idea of "foretelling software" borders on the absurd..
WTF is this world coming to???
--- End quote ---
:shamrock: :shamrock: :shamrock:
What is amazing is I am listening to rational, educated adults say it is crazy not to try and find a way to stop 80,000 youth offenders from taking your civil liberties away (speaking in general) when they commit a crime.
Froderik what do you want Florida to do ???????????? or for that matter any other state.
I hear everyone here getting up on their soap box doing what you usually do, digging up information to discredit this probable solution to a out of control problem, 6 to 7 of you everytime the same people jump into action to knock down a potential fix, without even knowing what exactly your talking about. Some of you don't even quote the article properly, you don't care what it has to say, you have your opinions and that is it.
Danny
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